Sunrun is a residential solar company with 43% year-over-year revenue growth and dramatic earnings beats in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but critical quality weaknesses including a Piotroski score of just 3 out of 9, free cash flow deeply negative at negative 395% of net income, and 30% short interest reflect genuine financial fragility beneath the growth surface.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Revenue Growth Rate→Stable
- Critical Cash Flow Quality Deficit→Stable
- 30 Percent Short Interest Justified↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Sunrun Inc. (RUN) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Technology · Solar
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.42: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 6.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 36%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Sunrun Inc. designs, installs, owns, and maintains residential solar and storage systems in the United States, operating the largest fleet with 8,404 megawatts of Networked Solar Energy Capacity and $21.1 billion in Gross Earning Assets as of December 31, 2025. Cash flows come... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.42: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 6.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 36%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Sunrun Inc.
About Sunrun Inc.
Sunrun held 8,404 megawatts of Networked Solar Energy Capacity and $21.1 billion in Gross Earning Assets at December 31, 2025, operating the largest fleet of residential energy systems in the United States since acquiring Vivint Solar on October 8, 2020. California represents over 45% of the company's customer base, making it the dominant geography, while a multi-channel sales model—direct-to-consumer, energy system partnerships, and strategic partnerships—supports reach across additional U.S. states.
Sunrun generates revenue and cash flows primarily through 20- or 25-year Customer Agreements—leases and power purchase agreements—under which customers pay for solar output at predetermined rates without purchasing systems outright. Tax equity investment funds have historically financed upfront installation costs; during 2024, the company transitioned a large portion of funding from traditional tax equity to tax credit transfer (transferability) structures under IRA provisions, which can delay cash receipt by monthly to over a year following system placement in service. Solar panels, inverters, and batteries are sourced from a limited number of manufacturers and suppliers, creating supply-chain exposure to tariff volatility: the Commerce Department in April 2025 issued final anti-dumping and countervailing duty rates on modules from Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia, with rates ranging from 1.92% to 534.67%. Sales are delivered through direct-to-consumer field and retail teams, energy system integrators, and strategic partnerships with consumer brands that market the Sunrun offering to their own customer bases.
Show full overview
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, accelerated the sunset of the Section 48E Clean Electricity Investment Credit for solar after December 31, 2027, unless construction begins by July 4, 2026—a hard deadline that constrains the near-term tax equity market on which Sunrun depends. California's April 2023 Net Billing Tariff transition reduced the financial credits customers receive from solar systems, with originations in the state remaining below pre-NBT levels. Treasury Notice 2025-42, issued in August 2025, largely eliminated the long-established 5% safe harbor for solar construction starts, adding to project timing uncertainty in Sunrun's core funding model.
See also: Technology · Solar
From Sunrun Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Sunrun Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on Sunrun, Lowers Price Target to $12 — benzinga Oct 19, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on Sunrun, Lowers Price Target to $10 — benzinga Oct 14, 2026 negative
- NEWS Susquehanna Maintains Positive on Sunrun, Lowers Price Target to $13 — benzinga Oct 14, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Buy on Sunrun, Lowers Price Target to $14 — benzinga Oct 9, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on Sunrun, Lowers Price Target to $12 — benzinga Oct 9, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia10-K Item 1A: 'California, which is one of our key markets and represents over 45% of our customer base, as of December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of solar equipment suppliers10-K Item 1: 'We purchase equipment, including solar panels, inverters and batteries from a limited number of manufacturers and suppliers'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Volatile — 6.0% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.42: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 6.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 36%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Prior stop was $6.90. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $12.94 (+74.4% upside). Prior stop was $6.90. Stop-loss: $6.90.
Cyclical trap - fwd PE 14x vs trail 5x (2.9x); Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0).
Sunrun Inc. trades at a P/E of 5.0 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover RUN with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $14.
What does Sunrun Inc. do?Sunrun Inc. designs, installs, owns, and maintains residential solar and storage systems in the United States,...
Sunrun Inc. designs, installs, owns, and maintains residential solar and storage systems in the United States, operating the largest fleet with 8,404 megawatts of Networked Solar Energy Capacity and $21.1 billion in Gross Earning Assets as of December 31, 2025. Cash flows come primarily through 20- or 25-year Customer Agreements (leases and PPAs), financed via tax equity, non-recourse debt, and project equity. California accounts for over 45% of the customer base.