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GAPGap, Inc. (The)Sell5.6·$21.27-1.33%
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Gap, Inc. (The) (GAP) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $21.27 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Gap Inc. is a global omni-channel apparel retailer operating Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, and Athleta brands through 2,474 company-operated stores and ~1,000 franchise locations. Almost all products are manufactured outside North America; Vietnam (27%) and Indonesia (21%) are... Read more

$21.27+16.5% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#10 of 12 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield11.96%
IncomeYield3.25%(5y avg 3.54%)Payout26.59%sustainable
Stop $19.80Target $24.80(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$27.55+29.5%17 analysts
$24.80our TP
$21.27price
$27.55mean
$40

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $21.27 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 27, 202680d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 43%
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.6
P/E (Fwd)8.3
Mkt Cap$7.8B
EV/EBITDA6.1
Profit Mgn6.2%
ROE27.6%
Rev Growth1.0%
Beta2.01
Dividend3.25%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.69bullish
IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierVietnam27%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 27 percent of our fiscal 2025 purchases, by dollar value, were from factories in Vietnam.'
  • LOWSupplierIndonesia21%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 21 percent of our fiscal 2025 purchases, by dollar value, were from factories in Indonesia.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.9
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Macd
3.4
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $20.05Resistance $25.32

Price Targets

$20
$25
A.Upside+16.6%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GAP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $21.27 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $19.80. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the GAP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.80 (+16.5% upside). Prior stop was $19.80. Stop-loss: $19.80.

What are the risks of investing in GAP?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Negative momentum.

Is GAP overvalued or undervalued?

Gap, Inc. (The) trades at a P/E of 8.6 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GAP?

24 analysts cover GAP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Gap, Inc. (The) do?Gap Inc. is a global omni-channel apparel retailer operating Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, and Athleta brands through...

Gap Inc. is a global omni-channel apparel retailer operating Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, and Athleta brands through 2,474 company-operated stores and ~1,000 franchise locations. Almost all products are manufactured outside North America; Vietnam (27%) and Indonesia (21%) are the two largest sourcing countries by purchase value.

Related stocks: BKE (Buckle, Inc. (The)) · ROST (Ross Stores, Inc.) · VSCO (Victorias Secret & Co.) · ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch Company) · CRI (Carter's, Inc.)
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