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RIOTRiot Platforms, Inc.Sell5.3·$14.45
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Riot Platforms operates a cash-burning Bitcoin mining business with a quality score of 2.1 below the minimum threshold, trading above analyst consensus targets with 18% short interest and a put/call ratio of 3.42, making the risk profile highly unfavorable regardless of the Bitcoin price direction.

Thesis pillars

  • Cash Burn Quality Floor Breach→Stable
  • Extreme Bearish Positioning↑Improving
  • Earnings Volatility Pattern↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityShortModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Earnings in 5 days (2026-11-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.45: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 5.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Riot Platforms operates large-scale Bitcoin mining and data center facilities in Texas (Rockdale 700 MW, Corsicana 400 MW) and Kentucky (~137 MW), with 38.5 EH/s deployed hash rate at December 31, 2025, mining 5,686 bitcoin in 2025. Revenue comes primarily from block rewards... Read more

$14.45+83.0% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#41 of 50 Capital Markets
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-13.26%
Stop $13.44Analyst target $26.44(−10% haircut)A.R:R 5.5:1
Analyst consensus$29.38+103.3%22 analysts
$26.44Analyst target
$14.45price
$29.38mean
$42

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.45: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 5.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29

Recent Developments — Riot Platforms, Inc.

Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:40Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-15.2
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA-6.5
Profit Mgn-196.3%
ROE-48.2%
Rev Growth13.9%
Beta3.76
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.41bullish
IV113%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -196.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
1.7
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.8
Cash-burning: FCF -107% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.4
Value Rank
1.8
Growth Rank
4.4

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
7.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 5 days
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5A.R:R 5.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
36 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.79Resistance $21.09

Price Targets

$13
$26
A.Upside+83.0%
A.R:R5.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RIOT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.45: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 5.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $13.44. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RIOT stock price target?

Analyst target: $26.44 (+83.0% upside). Prior stop was $13.44. Stop-loss: $13.44.

What are the risks of investing in RIOT?

Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is RIOT overvalued or undervalued?

Riot Platforms, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RIOT?

28 analysts cover RIOT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $29.

What does Riot Platforms, Inc. do?Riot Platforms operates large-scale Bitcoin mining and data center facilities in Texas (Rockdale 700 MW, Corsicana 400...

Riot Platforms operates large-scale Bitcoin mining and data center facilities in Texas (Rockdale 700 MW, Corsicana 400 MW) and Kentucky (~137 MW), with 38.5 EH/s deployed hash rate at December 31, 2025, mining 5,686 bitcoin in 2025. Revenue comes primarily from block rewards under a Full-Pay-Per-Share mining pool arrangement plus engineering services. In January 2026, Riot signed a 10-year data center lease with AMD for 25 MW at Rockdale.

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