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Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Wait for pullback to $51.67. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $55.48. Engine's entry $51.67 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -21.8%), Material insider selling (25 sells, 0.10% of cap).

Rubrik provides cloud-native Zero Trust Data Security via its Rubrik Security Cloud SaaS platform, protecting enterprise, cloud, SaaS, unstructured data, and identity providers against cyberattacks; $1.32B revenue for fiscal year ended January 31, 2026. Revenue is primarily... Read more

$55.48+44.8% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#23 of 80 Software - Infrastructure
Entry $51.67(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $45.95Target $76.15(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.5:1Setup A.R:R 6.4:1
Analyst target$84.62+52.5%26 analysts
$76.15our TP
$55.48price
$84.62mean
$126

Wait for pullback to $51.67. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $55.48. Engine's entry $51.67 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -21.8%), Material insider selling (25 sells, 0.10% of cap). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -21.8%), Material insider selling (25 sells, 0.10% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)91.6
Mkt Cap$10.9B
EV/EBITDA-32.0
Profit Mgn-26.5%
ROE
Rev Growth46.3%
Beta0.64
DividendNone
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.03bearish
IV70%elevated
Max Pain$69+24.4% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-04Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Brian McCarthy (President, Global Sales and Field Operations) resigned effective February 6, 2026, to pursue another opportunity. Jesse Green (President, Rubrik Americas) promoted to Chief Revenue Officer as successor.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.7
Support Resistance
1.1
Bollinger
1.9
Gap
4.0
GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 34d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $42.25Resistance $56.97

Price Targets

$46
$52
$76
A.Upside+37.3%
A.R:R2.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)6.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Momentum score 4.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-04 (34d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RBRK stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $51.67. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $55.48. Engine's entry $51.67 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -21.8%), Material insider selling (25 sells, 0.10% of cap). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $76.15 (+37.3%), stop $45.95 (−20.7%), Setup A.R:R 6.4:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RBRK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $76.15 (+44.8% upside). Target $76.15 (+37.3%), stop $45.95 (−20.7%), Setup A.R:R 6.4:1. Stop-loss: $45.95.

What are the risks of investing in RBRK?

Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -21.8%), Material insider selling (25 sells, 0.10% of cap).

Is RBRK overvalued or undervalued?

Rubrik, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 91.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about RBRK?

32 analysts cover RBRK with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $85.

What does Rubrik, Inc. do?Rubrik provides cloud-native Zero Trust Data Security via its Rubrik Security Cloud SaaS platform, protecting...

Rubrik provides cloud-native Zero Trust Data Security via its Rubrik Security Cloud SaaS platform, protecting enterprise, cloud, SaaS, unstructured data, and identity providers against cyberattacks; $1.32B revenue for fiscal year ended January 31, 2026. Revenue is primarily subscription-based (majority of total revenue as of fiscal 2026 end); no single customer concentration disclosed. In February 2026, Rubrik launched Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC) for enterprise AI agent security.

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