QUALCOMM combines a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak, 36% return on equity, 22% net margins, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 with a PEG of 0.94, but the stock trades well above analyst price targets implying -23.9% downside, and recent news from an analyst cluster of 3 has not been sufficient to resolve the negative asymmetry.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Business Fundamentals→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Above Target Negative Asymmetry↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 5, 2025
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Technology · Semiconductors
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $182.97 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Qualcomm designs Snapdragon and Dragonwing integrated circuit platforms for mobile, automotive, and IoT devices, and licenses cellular IP through its QCT and QTL segments. Revenue comes from chip sales to OEM device manufacturers and royalties from global licensees for... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $182.97 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About QUALCOMM Incorporated
About QUALCOMM Incorporated
Qualcomm's fabless semiconductor operation produces Snapdragon and Dragonwing chip platforms through a limited number of third-party foundries, selling into mobile, automotive, and IoT end markets via the QCT semiconductor segment while licensing foundational cellular IP through QTL. For calendar year 2025, the company estimated smartphone demand would remain approximately flat relative to 2024, with mid single-digit percentage growth in 5G handsets. A significant portion of QCT revenues comes from a concentrated group of Chinese OEMs.
Qualcomm generates revenue through QCT chip sales to device manufacturers and QTL royalties from hundreds of licensees holding patents on 3G/4G/5G cellular technologies. QCT sells Snapdragon platforms across product tiers — from entry-level devices in emerging markets to premium-tier 5G smartphones — with higher margins on integrated modem-and-application-processor products than on the MDM thin modem products Apple purchases. The fabless model means Qualcomm relies on a limited number of third-party suppliers for procurement, manufacture, assembly, and testing — a dependency the 10-K flags as a material risk. Apple, Samsung, and Xiaomi are among the named OEM customers that have developed or are developing their own integrated circuit alternatives. QTL royalties depend on licensees' device volumes, and several Chinese OEMs account for a significant portion of QTL revenue; Chinese government policies on capital outflows have at times delayed royalty payments.
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The 10-K documents a specific dated regulatory action: in May 2024, the U.S. Department of Commerce revoked Qualcomm's export license for 4G and certain other integrated circuit products sold to Huawei, one of China's largest smartphone OEMs, eliminating that revenue source. The company further discloses that Chinese government policies prioritizing semiconductor self-sufficiency may encourage additional OEMs to develop proprietary chips. If trade restrictions expand to additional Chinese customers or Chinese licensees delay royalty payments, both QCT and QTL revenues could be simultaneously harmed.
See also: Technology · Semiconductors
From QUALCOMM Incorporated's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — QUALCOMM Incorporated
Latest news
- NEWS Qualcomm forecasts weak quarterly profit, expects Apple revenue drop to accelerate - Reuters — Reuters negative
- NEWS Qualcomm Q3 Highlights: Revenue Beat, EPS Miss, CEO Says 'Solid Execution of Growth Strategy' - Benzinga — Benzinga positive
- NEWS Qualcomm to raise prices during memory crunch as chipmaker issues light earnings guidance - CNBC — CNBC negative
- NEWS Qualcomm to raise prices during memory crunch as chipmaker issues light earnings guidance - cnbc.com — cnbc.com negative
- NEWS QCOM Stock Alert: What to Know as Qualcomm Partners With BMW - Barchart.com — Barchart.com positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:40Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicChina10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our business is concentrated in China'
- MEDIUMCustomersmall number of customers and licensees10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a significant portion of our revenues from a small number of customers and licensees, and particularly from their sale of premium-tier handset devices'
- MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of third-party suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on a limited number of third-party suppliers for the procurement, manufacture, assembly and testing of our products manufactured in a fabless production model'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -4.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $182.97 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $171.15. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $180.60 reached (−1.3% from $182.97); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $171.15. Stop-loss: $171.15.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
QUALCOMM Incorporated trades at a P/E of 21.2 (forward 18.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
46 analysts cover QCOM with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $196.
What does QUALCOMM Incorporated do?Qualcomm designs Snapdragon and Dragonwing integrated circuit platforms for mobile, automotive, and IoT devices, and...
Qualcomm designs Snapdragon and Dragonwing integrated circuit platforms for mobile, automotive, and IoT devices, and licenses cellular IP through its QCT and QTL segments. Revenue comes from chip sales to OEM device manufacturers and royalties from global licensees for foundational 3G/4G/5G patents. The company's IP portfolio spans technologies embedded in virtually all modern cellular standards.