Value
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.0 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 9.8 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.54
- ▸Attractively valued
QCOM · Why this verdict
Why QUALCOMM (QCOM) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
QUALCOMM combines a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak, 36% return on equity, 22% net margins, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 with a PEG of 0.94, but the stock trades well above analyst price targets implying -23.9% downside, and recent news from an analyst cluster of 3 has not been sufficient to resolve the negative asymmetry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
QUALCOMM delivers 36% return on equity, 22% net margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and ranks superior to peers on both value and quality (ROE rank 7.9/10, quality rank 7.9/10), placing it among the highest-quality businesses in the semiconductor sector. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 30% and net margins stay above 18% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDespite high quality metrics, revenue has declined -4% year over year and overall growth scores are low at 5.8, suggesting the quality engine is not yet driving top-line expansion. | ||
QUALCOMM has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 4%, demonstrating consistent execution in a complex and competitive semiconductor supply chain environment. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as the company maintains cost discipline and licensing revenues remain stable. | →Stable |
| CounterAn average surprise of only 4% is modest, and with estimates likely adjusted upward after 4 consecutive beats, maintaining the streak becomes harder while the incremental signal weakens. | ||
The current price of $220.81 implies -23.9% downside to the resistance-based take profit target of $253.78 when framed against the current price-to-target gap, and the asymmetry ratio is -1.59, meaning expected downside exceeds upside at spot, making this a position to hold rather than add. Targets | Analyst targets rise above $250 within 12 months to restore positive asymmetry and create a fresh entry opportunity. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterA resistance-based take profit that is below the current price reflects a conservatively set technical target; analyst fundamental targets may be revised higher by the analyst cluster that has recently been detected in the news. | ||
A cluster of 3 analyst actions has been detected in recent news with positive LLM sentiment of +0.53 across 7 articles, suggesting increased institutional attention that could serve as a catalyst for re-rating if paired with a better technical setup. V9 | Analyst coverage expands and at least 2 new price target upgrades are published within 6 months, pushing the consensus target above $265. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst clusters can be triggered by routine roadshow participation or sector notes rather than proprietary research, and the signal may not reflect material new information about QUALCOMM's competitive positioning. | ||
QUALCOMM delivers 36% return on equity, 22% net margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and ranks superior to peers on both value and quality (ROE rank 7.9/10, quality rank 7.9/10), placing it among the highest-quality businesses in the semiconductor sector.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 30% and net margins stay above 18% over the next 12 months.
CounterDespite high quality metrics, revenue has declined -4% year over year and overall growth scores are low at 5.8, suggesting the quality engine is not yet driving top-line expansion.
QUALCOMM has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 4%, demonstrating consistent execution in a complex and competitive semiconductor supply chain environment.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as the company maintains cost discipline and licensing revenues remain stable.
CounterAn average surprise of only 4% is modest, and with estimates likely adjusted upward after 4 consecutive beats, maintaining the streak becomes harder while the incremental signal weakens.
The current price of $220.81 implies -23.9% downside to the resistance-based take profit target of $253.78 when framed against the current price-to-target gap, and the asymmetry ratio is -1.59, meaning expected downside exceeds upside at spot, making this a position to hold rather than add.
Tripped↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise above $250 within 12 months to restore positive asymmetry and create a fresh entry opportunity.
CounterA resistance-based take profit that is below the current price reflects a conservatively set technical target; analyst fundamental targets may be revised higher by the analyst cluster that has recently been detected in the news.
A cluster of 3 analyst actions has been detected in recent news with positive LLM sentiment of +0.53 across 7 articles, suggesting increased institutional attention that could serve as a catalyst for re-rating if paired with a better technical setup.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- Analyst coverage expands and at least 2 new price target upgrades are published within 6 months, pushing the consensus target above $265.
CounterAnalyst clusters can be triggered by routine roadshow participation or sector notes rather than proprietary research, and the signal may not reflect material new information about QUALCOMM's competitive positioning.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 8.5 |
| Gross margin | 7.0 |
| Op margin | 8.8 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 36%
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -4%
Momentum
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 19, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.1 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 38%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $5,861,442 (0.003% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.0 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 0.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.8 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 2.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 1.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 4.5 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
- ▸High IV: 86%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.2% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.05
Upside
+27.1%
Downside
8.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.3) with weak momentum (1.2)
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.64>1.3
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Quality at 8.3 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.3, Value at 7.8, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 1.2, Peer rank at 4.8, and Growth at 5.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.05 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Business Fundamentals
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Above Target Negative AsymmetryTripped
Trip ifPrice falls below $190 without a corresponding upward revision in analyst targets above $240.
- P4Analyst Cluster Catalyst
Trip ifAnalyst coverage drops below 2 active recommendations or consensus target falls below $200.