Philip Morris International Inc (PM) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Tobacco
Sell if holding. At $166.26, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.3%; Weak growth.
Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS HTUs, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV e-vapor) internationally across ~170 markets, organized in four geographic segments; effective Q1 2026, reorganized into International Smoke-Free, International... Read more
Sell if holding. At $166.26, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.3%; Weak growth. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicRussia6.0%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, Russia accounted for around 9% of our total cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume, and around 6% of our total net revenues'
- MEDIUMCustomertwo distributors exceeding 10% of net revenues10-K Item 1: 'sales to a distributor in the Europe Region and a distributor in the EA, AU & PMI GTR Region each amounted to 10 percent or more of our consolidated net revenues'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $166.26, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.3%; Weak growth. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $156.74. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $173.34 (+4.3% upside). Prior stop was $156.74. Stop-loss: $156.74.
Thin upside margin: 4.3%; Weak growth.
Philip Morris International Inc trades at a P/E of 23.2 (forward 18.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover PM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $193.
What does Philip Morris International Inc do?Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS HTUs, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV e-vapor)...
Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS HTUs, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV e-vapor) internationally across ~170 markets, organized in four geographic segments; effective Q1 2026, reorganized into International Smoke-Free, International Combustibles, and U.S. segments. Total shipment volume was 786.5B equivalent units in 2025, with 179.1B smoke-free units; Marlboro accounted for ~43% of cigarette shipment volume. Russia (~9% of cigarette/HTU volume, ~6% of net revenues) and two large distributors (each exceeding 10% of consolidated net revenues) represent notabl