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PMPhilip Morris International IncSell5.0·$184.30+1.95%
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Philip Morris International Inc (PM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Tobacco

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $184.30 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.5% away).

Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS heated tobacco, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV e-vapor) in approximately 170 markets excluding the U.S., with smoke-free products available in 106 markets as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is earned from... Read more

$184.30+2.7% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#5 of 6 Tobacco
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.99%
IncomeYield3.19%(5y avg 4.59%)Payout81.09%at-risk
Stop $173.86Target $189.19(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$193.86+5.2%14 analysts
$189.19our TP
$184.30price
$193.86mean
$168
$210

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $184.30 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.5% away). Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202639d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.5% away)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.0
P/E (Fwd)20.2
Mkt Cap$287.2B
EV/EBITDA18.1
Profit Mgn26.7%
ROE
Rev Growth9.1%
Beta0.41
Dividend3.19%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$60-67.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertwo distributors each 10%+
    10-K Item 1: 'sales to a distributor in the Europe Region and a distributor in the EA, AU & PMI GTR Region each amounted to 10 percent or more of our consolidated net revenues'
  • MEDIUMProductMarlboro43%
    10-K Item 1: 'Marlboro, the world’s best-selling international cigarette, which accounted for approximately 43% of our total 2025 cigarette shipment volume'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.1
Revenue Growth
4.8
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Conservative
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $170.00Resistance $193.05

Price Targets

$174
$189
A.Upside+2.7%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $184.30 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.5% away). Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $173.86. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $189.19 (+2.7% upside). Prior stop was $173.86. Stop-loss: $173.86.

What are the risks of investing in PM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away); Weak growth.

Is PM overvalued or undervalued?

Philip Morris International Inc trades at a P/E of 26.0 (forward 20.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PM?

26 analysts cover PM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $194.

What does Philip Morris International Inc do?Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS heated tobacco, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV...

Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS heated tobacco, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV e-vapor) in approximately 170 markets excluding the U.S., with smoke-free products available in 106 markets as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is earned from product sales through distributors and direct channels serving approximately 84,900 employees worldwide; Marlboro accounted for approximately 43% of total 2025 cigarette shipment volume.

Related stocks: MO (Altria Group, Inc.) · BTI (British American Tobacco Indus) · MNST (Monster Beverage Corporation) · BUD (Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA Sponsor) · PEP (Pepsico, Inc.)
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