PepsiCo has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with a 44% ROE and a superior Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, but trades near analyst targets with only 3.7% upside, carries a high debt-to-equity ratio, and faces a sole-source raw material supplier concentration risk.
Thesis pillars
- High Roe Brand Quality→Stable
- Earnings Consistency Consumer Staple→Stable
- Leverage Supplier Concentration↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 3, 2026
Pepsico, Inc. (PEP) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $132.63 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole supplier raw materials.
PepsiCo makes and sells beverages and convenient foods across more than 200 countries through six reportable segments spanning North America, EMEA, Latin America, and Asia Pacific. Revenue is earned from branded product sales via direct-store-delivery, customer warehouse, and... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $132.63 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole supplier raw materials. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 96d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About Pepsico, Inc.
About Pepsico, Inc.
Walmart Inc. and its affiliates, including Sam's Club, represented approximately 14% of PepsiCo's consolidated net revenue in 2025 across all six segments, including concentrate sold to independent bottlers resold to Walmart. The company sells beverages and convenient foods in more than 200 countries and territories through brands including Lay's, Doritos, Cheetos, Gatorade, and Pepsi-Cola. In measured U.S. beverage channels, PepsiCo held approximately 16% of the liquid refreshment category by estimated retail sales in 2025, compared to The Coca-Cola Company's roughly 20%.
PepsiCo earns revenue through branded volume sales distributed via direct-store-delivery, customer warehouses, third-party distributor networks, and a growing e-commerce presence. Six segments—PepsiCo Foods North America, PepsiCo Beverages North America, International Beverages Franchise, EMEA, LatAm Foods, and Asia Pacific Foods—each address distinct geographies and product categories. Raw material cost volatility across corn, potatoes, oats, aluminum, PET resin, and vegetable oils is managed via fixed-price contracts and derivative instruments including swaps and futures. The Coca-Cola Company is PepsiCo's primary U.S. beverage competitor; in convenient foods the company competes with Mondelēz International, Conagra Brands, and Keurig Dr Pepper, among others. Tariffs imposed on imports from China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico continued to affect supply chain input costs through 2025, and the company experienced ongoing volatility in commodity, packaging, and transportation costs.
Show full overview
Beyond the Walmart relationship, the retail landscape is shifting against branded manufacturers: retailers and buying groups are removing PepsiCo products from shelf allocations and investing in private-label alternatives, a trend the 10-K identifies as potentially adverse to pricing and volume. Government benefit program changes—including modifications to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program in the United States—could reduce demand among price-sensitive consumers. Taxes on sugar, sodium, or saturated fat content, already imposed in certain jurisdictions and under consideration in others, may require product reformulations or price adjustments that could weigh on unit demand.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
From Pepsico, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Pepsico, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS PepsiCo (PEP) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insights - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) Stock Price Target Lowered at Evercore - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS PepsiCo (PEP) Stock Still Looks Undervalued Despite A 14% Slide - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street positive
- NEWS PepsiCo (PEP) Stock Still Looks Undervalued Despite A 14% Slide - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
- NEWS PepsiCo (PEP) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerWalmart14%10-K Item 1: 'sales to Walmart Inc. (Walmart) and its affiliates, including Sam's Club (Sam's), represented approximately 14% of our consolidated net revenue'
- HIGHSuppliersole supplier raw materials10-K Item 1A: 'Some raw materials and supplies, including packaging materials, are available only from a limited number of suppliers or from a sole supplier'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $132.63 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole supplier raw materials. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Prior stop was $126.75. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $127.43 reached (−3.9% from $132.63); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $126.75. Stop-loss: $126.75.
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole supplier raw materials; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.
Pepsico, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.7 (forward 15.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
29 analysts cover PEP with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $142.
What does Pepsico, Inc. do?PepsiCo makes and sells beverages and convenient foods across more than 200 countries through six reportable segments...
PepsiCo makes and sells beverages and convenient foods across more than 200 countries through six reportable segments spanning North America, EMEA, Latin America, and Asia Pacific. Revenue is earned from branded product sales via direct-store-delivery, customer warehouse, and distributor networks; Walmart and its affiliates represented approximately 14% of consolidated net revenue in 2025.