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PIIPolaris Inc.Sell5.3·$58.64
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Polaris has a quality score of only 1.7 out of 10 with no competitive moat and single-source supplier dependency as a flagged high-severity risk, while the stock is trading 12.7% above the analyst price target with negative asymmetry — the risk profile does not support current positioning.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Floor Breach→Stable
  • Single Source Supplier Risk↑Improving
  • Price Above Analyst Target↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 13, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Polaris Inc. (PII) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $58.64: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Polaris designs, engineers, and manufactures powersports vehicles—off-road vehicles, snowmobiles, moto-roadsters, and boats—sold through approximately 2,400 North American dealers and 1,500+ international dealers across 90+ countries via 25 subsidiaries. Revenue comes from Off... Read more

$58.64-6.2% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#7 of 10 Recreational Vehicles
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield14.90%
IncomeYield4.64%(5y avg 3.09%)Payout368.06%at-risk
Stop $54.54Analyst target $55.00(reached)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst consensus$63.21+7.8%14 analysts
$58.64price
$63.21mean
$41
$80

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $58.64: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Polaris Inc.

About Polaris Inc.

Polaris sells powersports vehicles across three segments—Off Road, On Road, and Marine—distributing through approximately 2,400 North American dealers and more than 1,500 international dealers reaching over 90 countries via 25 subsidiaries and 70 independent distributors. The company held the North America ORV market share lead in 2025, competing in an estimated 970,000-unit worldwide ORV market, and employed approximately 14,500 full-time employees globally at December 31, 2025, with roughly 47% of the workforce located outside the United States.

Polaris generates revenue from vehicle sales across Off Road (ORVs and snowmobiles), On Road (Slingshot moto-roadsters, Goupil and Aixam commercial vehicles marketed primarily in Western Europe), and Marine (Bennington, Godfrey, and Hurricane pontoon and deck boats) segments, plus a parts, garments, and accessories business including the Klim, 509, Kolpin, and Pro Armor aftermarket brands. Floor plan financing for dealers is channeled through Polaris Acceptance, a joint venture with a subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., enabling payment to Polaris within days of shipment. Products are assembled at 18 global manufacturing facilities; a portion of annual sales originates from Mexico, exposing the company to U.S. tariff policy that has increased input costs on components procured from countries subject to elevated tariffs. The company has shifted, and intends to continue shifting, Chinese manufacturing to other facilities in response. Key raw material inputs—aluminum, steel, copper, petroleum-based resins, and certain rare earth metals—remain subject to price volatility that could adversely affect margins.

Show full overview

Polaris products compete for discretionary consumer spending, and the 10-K notes that fluctuations in employment, inflation, interest rates, and consumer credit availability could reduce demand for powersports and marine products. In some instances the company procures systems, components, raw materials, and parts from a single source or geography, and may not be able to develop alternate sourcing quickly, a risk that has previously caused production disruptions. The combination of single-source input exposure and tariff-driven cost volatility may impact margins if economic conditions simultaneously compress consumer demand.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles

From Polaris Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29

Recent Developments — Polaris Inc.

Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jan 25, 202788d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source components
Target reached (-6.2% upside)
Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)18.4
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA9.4
Profit Mgn-2.7%
ROE-20.5%
Rev Growth10.6%
Beta—
Dividend4.64%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV50%elevated
Max Pain$80+36.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersingle-source components
    10-K Item 1A: 'we purchase systems, components, raw materials and parts that are ultimately derived from a single source or geography'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-01Item 5.02LOW
    Stockholders approved amendment to 2024 Omnibus Incentive Plan on April 30, 2026, increasing authorized shares by 4,580,000 (from 4,325,000 to 8,905,000). Routine compensatory arrangement; no officer departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
0.4
Operating Margin
1.5
Roa
1.9
Current Ratio
4.2
Moat
4.2
Piotroski F
5.6
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
2.9
52w Position
5.2

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
6.0
Value Rank
7.0
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $50.26Resistance $62.00

Price Targets

A.Upside-6.2%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-01-25 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PII stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $58.64: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $54.54. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PII stock price target?

Analyst target $55.00 reached (−6.2% from $58.64); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $54.54. Stop-loss: $54.54.

What are the risks of investing in PII?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source components; Target reached (-6.2% upside); Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0).

Is PII overvalued or undervalued?

Polaris Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PII?

22 analysts cover PII with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $63.

What does Polaris Inc. do?Polaris designs, engineers, and manufactures powersports vehicles—off-road vehicles, snowmobiles, moto-roadsters, and...

Polaris designs, engineers, and manufactures powersports vehicles—off-road vehicles, snowmobiles, moto-roadsters, and boats—sold through approximately 2,400 North American dealers and 1,500+ international dealers across 90+ countries via 25 subsidiaries. Revenue comes from Off Road, On Road, and Marine vehicle sales plus parts, garments, and accessories; Polaris held the North America ORV market share lead in 2025 and completed the sale of a majority interest in Indian Motorcycle in Q1 2026.

Related stocks: MBUU (Malibu Boats, Inc.) · MCFT (MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.) · DOO (BRP Inc.) · BC (Brunswick Corporation) · PATK (Patrick Industries, Inc.)
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