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Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $89.37 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Patrick Industries is a component solutions provider for the RV (45% of 2025 net sales), marine, powersports, manufactured housing, and industrial markets, operating approximately 191 manufacturing plants and 50 distribution facilities across 25 U.S. states. Manufacturing (74%... Read more

$89.37+27.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#3 of 7 Recreational Vehicles
Stop $83.70Target $114.84(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$132.00+47.7%10 analysts
$114.84our TP
$89.37price
$132.00mean
$155

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $89.37 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Negative momentum
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.8
P/E (Fwd)14.7
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA10.2
Profit Mgn3.4%
ROE11.7%
Rev Growth9.2%
Beta1.34
Dividend2.02%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C6.50bearish
IV70%elevated
Max Pain$150+67.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-2 RV customers28%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Two customers in the RV market accounted for a combined 28% of our consolidated net sales in 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerRV industry45%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025 and 2024, the Company’s net sales to the RV industry were approximately 45% and 44%, respectively, of consolidated net sales'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 21, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.7
Growth Rank
4.3
Quality Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
21 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $90.00Resistance $121.39

Price Targets

$84
$115
A.Upside+28.5%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PATK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $89.37 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $83.70. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PATK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $114.84 (+27.6% upside). Prior stop was $83.70. Stop-loss: $83.70.

What are the risks of investing in PATK?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Is PATK overvalued or undervalued?

Patrick Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.8 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PATK?

16 analysts cover PATK with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $132.

What does Patrick Industries, Inc. do?Patrick Industries is a component solutions provider for the RV (45% of 2025 net sales), marine, powersports,...

Patrick Industries is a component solutions provider for the RV (45% of 2025 net sales), marine, powersports, manufactured housing, and industrial markets, operating approximately 191 manufacturing plants and 50 distribution facilities across 25 U.S. states. Manufacturing (74% of net sales) and Distribution (26%) are its two segments.

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