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PHATPhathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.Sell6.6·$12.07+4.55%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

PHAT's risk score sits below the engine's floor and options positioning signals heavy hedging, but a perfect earnings-beat streak, 104% revenue growth, and an elite Rule of 40 score temper the risk-driven exit signal.

Thesis pillars

  • Risk Below FloorStable
  • Elevated Put Call And Implied VolStable
  • Perfect Earnings Beat Streak With Strong GrowthStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (PHAT) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.07: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.6/10 and A.R:R 4.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.80; Below-average business quality.

Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing treatments for gastrointestinal diseases in the United States. It develops VOQUEZNA, which has completed Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of erosive gastroesophageal... Read more

$12.07+71.7% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#14 of 255 Biotechnology
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-8.54%
Stop $11.17Target $20.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.8:1
Analyst target$23.70+96.4%10 analysts
$20.62our TP
$12.07price
$23.70mean
$29

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.07: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.6/10 and A.R:R 4.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.80; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202629d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: VOQUEZNA
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Takeda License
Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)7.9
Mkt Cap$908M
EV/EBITDA-13.3
Profit Mgn-76.8%
ROE
Rev Growth104.4%
Beta0.49
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.80bearish
IV218%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductVOQUEZNA
    10-K Item 1A: 'We currently depend entirely on the success of our approved VOQUEZNA products, and in particular on the success of VOQUEZNA for the treatment of GERD.'
  • HIGHcounterpartyTakeda License
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on the Takeda License to provide us rights to develop and commercialize vonoprazan in the United States, Europe, and Canada.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.3
52w Position
3.1

Volatile — 5.3% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Days To Cover
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Short Interest
2.6
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Beta
10.0
Elevated put/call: 4.80High IV: 218%Above max pain $2Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.4>=5.5A.R:R 4.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 29d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
70 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.74Resistance $12.09

Price Targets

$11
$21
A.Upside+70.8%
A.R:R4.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (29d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PHAT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.07: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.6/10 and A.R:R 4.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.80; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70. Prior stop was $11.17. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PHAT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.62 (+71.7% upside). Prior stop was $11.17. Stop-loss: $11.17.

What are the risks of investing in PHAT?

Concentration risk — Product: VOQUEZNA; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Takeda License; Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0).

Is PHAT overvalued or undervalued?

Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 7.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PHAT?

17 analysts cover PHAT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing treatments for...

Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing treatments for gastrointestinal diseases in the United States. It develops VOQUEZNA, which has completed Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of erosive gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and related heartburn in adults; and VOQUEZNA Triple Pak and VOQUEZNA Dual Pak that have completed Phase III clinical trials for treating Helicobacter pylori, as well as VOQUEZNA and vonoprazan for the treatment of heartburn associated with non-erosive GERD and eosinophilic esophagitis in adults and adolescents. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Florham Park, New Jersey.

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