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OKTAOkta, Inc.Sell4.9·$116.03-1.26%
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Okta, Inc. (OKTA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $116.03 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.0): -1.5.

Okta is an identity management SaaS company offering the Okta Platform (workforce identity) and Auth0 Platform (customer/developer identity) to over 20,000 customers globally as of January 31, 2026. It earns revenue primarily from multi-year subscriptions, with 20% of revenue... Read more

$116.03+20.0% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#61 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.79%
Stop $108.15Target $139.50(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$119.35+2.9%43 analysts
$139.50our TP
$116.03price
$119.35mean
$75
$150

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $116.03 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.0): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 25, 202672d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 6.0): -1.5
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)84.3
P/E (Fwd)27.2
Mkt Cap$20.4B
EV/EBITDA67.5
Profit Mgn8.2%
ROE3.7%
Rev Growth11.2%
Beta0.79
DividendNone
Rating analysts53

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV64%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-22Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Larissa Schwartz (Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary) intends to leave effective July 31, 2026, then serve as senior advisor through January 31, 2027 per transition agreement. No successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-23Item 5.02LOW
    Jeff Epstein resigned from Okta Board effective at 2026 annual meeting (June 18, 2026). Departure not due to any disagreement with the company.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-11Item 5.02LOW
    Michael Stankey resigned from Okta Board of Directors. Departure not due to any disagreement with the company. No reason cited beyond resignation.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.2
Quality Rank
3.5
Growth Rank
3.7
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $80.37Resistance $142.35

Price Targets

$108
$140
A.Upside+20.2%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-25 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OKTA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $116.03 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.0): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $108.15. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the OKTA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $139.50 (+20.0% upside). Prior stop was $108.15. Stop-loss: $108.15.

What are the risks of investing in OKTA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 6.0): -1.5; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is OKTA overvalued or undervalued?

Okta, Inc. trades at a P/E of 84.3 (forward 27.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OKTA?

53 analysts cover OKTA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $119.

What does Okta, Inc. do?Okta is an identity management SaaS company offering the Okta Platform (workforce identity) and Auth0 Platform...

Okta is an identity management SaaS company offering the Okta Platform (workforce identity) and Auth0 Platform (customer/developer identity) to over 20,000 customers globally as of January 31, 2026. It earns revenue primarily from multi-year subscriptions, with 20% of revenue generated outside the United States in fiscal 2026.

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