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NWNNorthwest Natural Holding CompaSell5.1·$49.86+1.18%
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Northwest Natural Holding Compa (NWN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. At $49.86, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC (Oregon Public Utility Commission).

Northwest Natural Holding operates NW Natural, a regulated gas distribution utility with approximately 810,000 meters in Oregon (88%) and southwest Washington (12%), plus SiEnergy (~90,000 meters in Texas DFW/Houston/Austin areas acquired January 2025). Revenue is regulated by... Read more

$49.86+0.3% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#9 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-13.58%
IncomeYield3.95%(5y avg 4.41%)Payout67.29%
Stop $47.40Target $50.02(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$57.50+15.3%6 analysts
$50.02our TP
$49.86price
$57.50mean
$61

Sell if holding. At $49.86, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC (Oregon Public Utility Commission). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%)
Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC (Oregon Public Utility Commission)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.1
P/E (Fwd)15.5
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA9.9
Profit Mgn9.6%
ROE8.1%
Rev Growth-0.8%
Beta0.43
Dividend3.95%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.20bullish
IV58%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicOregon88%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 88% of customers are located in Oregon and 12% are located in southwest Washington'
  • HIGHregulatoryOPUC (Oregon Public Utility Commission)
    10-K Item 1: 'The NWN Gas Utility business is subject to regulation by the OPUC and WUTC. These regulatory agencies authorize rates and allow recovery mechanisms'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyPortland General Electric (North Mist storage, 30-year contract)
    10-K Item 1: 'The North Mist facility provides long-term, no-notice underground gas storage service and is dedicated solely to Portland General Electric (PGE) under a 30-year contract'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -0.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.3
Earnings Growth
3.4
Declining revenue: -1%
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $47.57Resistance $52.30

Price Targets

$47
$50
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.3% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NWN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $49.86, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC (Oregon Public Utility Commission). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $47.40. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NWN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.02 (+0.3% upside). Prior stop was $47.40. Stop-loss: $47.40.

What are the risks of investing in NWN?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC (Oregon Public Utility Commission); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is NWN overvalued or undervalued?

Northwest Natural Holding Compa trades at a P/E of 17.1 (forward 15.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NWN?

11 analysts cover NWN with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $58.

What does Northwest Natural Holding Compa do?Northwest Natural Holding operates NW Natural, a regulated gas distribution utility with approximately 810,000 meters...

Northwest Natural Holding operates NW Natural, a regulated gas distribution utility with approximately 810,000 meters in Oregon (88%) and southwest Washington (12%), plus SiEnergy (~90,000 meters in Texas DFW/Houston/Austin areas acquired January 2025). Revenue is regulated by the OPUC and WUTC; residential and commercial customers provide 91% of NW Natural margin. The company also operates Mist gas storage (21.6 Bcf total capacity).

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