Northwest Natural Holding beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with a strong average positive surprise, but 88% of revenue is concentrated in Oregon under a single regulatory jurisdiction, free cash flow is deeply negative at negative 232% of net income, and the dividend yield is flagged as potentially unsafe.
Thesis pillars
- Oregon Geographic Concentration→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Severe Negative Fcf Quality→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Northwest Natural Holding Compa (NWN) Stock Analysis
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.26: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.
NW Natural Holding operates regulated natural gas distribution through ~810,000 meters in Oregon and southwest Washington, plus ~90,000 meters in Texas (SiEnergy, acquired 2025). Revenue flows from authorized cost-of-service rates; residential and commercial customers generate... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.26: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-14Recent Developments — Northwest Natural Holding Compa
Latest news
- NEWS Northwest Natural Holding Co (NWN) Earnings Forecast: Future EPS & Revenue Growth Estimates - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Northwest Natural Holding Co (NWN) Earnings Forecast: Future EPS & Revenue Growth Estimates - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com neutral
- NEWS Northwest Natural Holding Company: - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com neutral
- NEWS Northwest Natural Gas (NWN) to Release Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Northwest Natural To Go Ex-Dividend On April 30th, 2026 With 0.4925 USD Dividend Per Share - Moomoo — Moomoo neutral
Generated 2026-09-14T05:28:58Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicOregon88%10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 88% of customers are located in Oregon and 12% are located in southwest Washington.'
- HIGHregulatoryOPUC10-K Item 1: 'The NWN Gas Utility business is subject to regulation by the OPUC and WUTC.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle interstate transmission pipeline10-K Item 1: 'NW Natural's gas distribution system is reliant on a single, bi-directional interstate transmission pipeline'
- HIGHCustomerPortland General Electric10-K Item 1: 'is dedicated solely to Portland General Electric (PGE) under a 30-year contract'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.26: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $46.87. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $49.94 (+3.1% upside). Prior stop was $46.87. Stop-loss: $46.87.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC; Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).
Northwest Natural Holding Compa trades at a P/E of 16.2 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover NWN with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $57.
What does Northwest Natural Holding Compa do?NW Natural Holding operates regulated natural gas distribution through ~810,000 meters in Oregon and southwest...
NW Natural Holding operates regulated natural gas distribution through ~810,000 meters in Oregon and southwest Washington, plus ~90,000 meters in Texas (SiEnergy, acquired 2025). Revenue flows from authorized cost-of-service rates; residential and commercial customers generate ~91% of NWN Gas Utility margin. The Mist storage facility (21.6 Bcf) includes a 30-year exclusive agreement with Portland General Electric.