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NRPNatural Resource Partners LP LiSell4.6·$104.50-0.96%
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Natural Resource Partners LP Li (NRP) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Thermal Coal

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $104.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak).

Natural Resource Partners L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns, manages, and leases a portfolio of mineral properties in the United States. It operates in two segments, Mineral Rights and Soda Ash. It owns interests in coal, soda ash, trona, and other natural resources.... Read more

$104.50+5.5% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#4 of 4 Thermal Coal
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield8.65%
IncomeYield2.87%(5y avg 4.27%)Payout35.25%sustainable
Stop $98.30Target $110.20(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $104.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Natural Resource Partners LP Li

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202656d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.0 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
High-quality business
Risks
Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak overall score: 4.6/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.3
P/E (Fwd)34.8
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA9.6
Profit Mgn58.5%
ROE19.3%
Rev Growth-15.3%
Beta0.12
Dividend2.87%
Rating analysts5

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.31bullish
IV51%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -15.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -15%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
2.5
Quality Rank
7.5
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $100.10Resistance $112.45

Price Targets

$98
$110
A.Upside+5.5%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 35x vs trail 12x (2.8x)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NRP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $104.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $98.30. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NRP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $110.20 (+5.5% upside). Prior stop was $98.30. Stop-loss: $98.30.

What are the risks of investing in NRP?

Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.6/10.

Is NRP overvalued or undervalued?

Natural Resource Partners LP Li trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 34.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NRP?

5 analysts cover NRP with a consensus score of 4.0/5.

What does Natural Resource Partners LP Li do?Natural Resource Partners L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns, manages, and leases a portfolio of mineral...

Natural Resource Partners L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns, manages, and leases a portfolio of mineral properties in the United States. It operates in two segments, Mineral Rights and Soda Ash. It owns interests in coal, soda ash, trona, and other natural resources. The company's coal reserves are primarily located in the Appalachia Basin, the Illinois Basin, and the Northern Powder River Basin in the United States; industrial minerals and aggregates properties located in the United States; and oil and gas properties located in Louisiana. It leases a portion of its reserves in exchange for royalty payments; and owns and leases transportation and processing infrastructure related to coal properties. Natural Resource Partners L.P. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Related stocks: BTU (Peabody Energy Corporation) · CNR (Core Natural Resources, Inc.) · ARLP (Alliance Resource Partners, L.P) · GPOR (Gulfport Energy Corporation) · STNG (Scorpio Tankers Inc.)
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