Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Energy · Thermal Coal
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.06: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Peabody Energy is a leading coal producer with 16 active mining operations in the US and Australia across Seaborne Thermal, Seaborne Metallurgical, Powder River Basin, and Other US Thermal segments. Revenue comes from selling thermal coal (majority by volume) to electric... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.06: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Peabody Energy Corporation
About Peabody Energy Corporation
Peabody Energy's 16 active mines in the United States and Australia produced 120.3 million tons of coal in 2025, with seaborne operations (Seaborne Thermal and Seaborne Metallurgical segments) representing approximately 51% of coal supply agreement revenues and U.S. Thermal segments (Powder River Basin and Other U.S. Thermal) accounting for the remaining 49%. Metallurgical coal sold to global steelmakers contributed approximately 27% of 2025 revenues, and total sales backlog reached 238 million tons as of January 1, 2026.
Long-term coal supply agreements covered approximately 87% of worldwide sales volumes in 2025, with the five largest customers generating 25% of revenues under 19 contracts expiring between 2025 and 2028; the largest single customer contributed roughly $291 million (about 8% of revenues) with contracts expiring in 2026. Australian export operations ship through five east coast terminals — including Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal in Queensland and Port Kembla and Newcastle in New South Wales — under take-or-pay arrangements totaling $1.0 billion with terms up to 19 years, converting variable transportation costs into fixed obligations. Principal U.S. thermal competitors include Alliance Resource Partners, Core Natural Resources, and American Consolidated Natural Resources; major international seaborne rivals include Glencore, BHP, and Whitehaven Coal Limited.
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Take-or-pay contractual obligations represent a fixed-cost floor that could weigh on profitability if production is curtailed: the $1.0 billion in port and rail commitments, predominantly in Australia, require minimum payments regardless of shipment volumes. Compounding this exposure, the surety transaction support agreement backing $997.2 million in outstanding surety bonds expires on December 31, 2026; the 10-K states that failure to maintain adequate bonding could invalidate mining permits and halt operations, making the 2026 surety renewal a near-term structural milestone for the company's operating licenses.
See also: Energy · Thermal Coal
From Peabody Energy Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-10Recent Developments — Peabody Energy Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Peabody Terminates 2020 Transaction Support Agreement With Its Surety Providers And Enters Standard Indemnification Agre — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 negative
- NEWS Trump Reportedly Moves To Revive Coal With $700M Push — ETFs, Stocks In The Spotlight — benzinga Jun 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS 'Trump Plans $700M Push to Build Coal Plants, Export Site'- Bloomberg — benzinga Jun 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS Reported Earlier, Peabody Announced The Pricing Of Its Offering Of $225M Aggregate Principal Amount Of 0.50% Convertible — benzinga May 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Peabody Intends To Offer $225M Of Convertible Senior Notes Due 2031 — benzinga May 28, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCommoditythermal coal10-K Item 1A: 'Thermal coal represented the majority of the Company’s coal sales by volume during 2025 and 2024'
- LOWCommoditymetallurgical coal27%10-K Item 1A: 'The Company also produces metallurgical coal for the global steel industry, which accounted for approximately 27% and 25% of its revenue in 2025 and 2024'
- LOWCustomerfive largest customers25%10-K Item 1A: '25% of the Company’s revenue was derived from coal supply agreements with its five largest customers'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.06: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Prior stop was $25.23. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $29.87 (+10.1% upside). Prior stop was $25.23. Stop-loss: $25.23.
Concentration risk — Commodity: thermal coal; Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).
Peabody Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 7.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover BTU with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $34.
What does Peabody Energy Corporation do?Peabody Energy is a leading coal producer with 16 active mining operations in the US and Australia across Seaborne...
Peabody Energy is a leading coal producer with 16 active mining operations in the US and Australia across Seaborne Thermal, Seaborne Metallurgical, Powder River Basin, and Other US Thermal segments. Revenue comes from selling thermal coal (majority by volume) to electric utilities and metallurgical coal (~27% of 2025 revenue) to the global steel industry.