BTU screens cheaply on forward earnings with 32% analyst upside, but the combination of sub-floor business quality, a recent earnings miss of -369%, high short interest at 16%, and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.44 makes the risk profile unattractive despite the surface valuation discount.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Low Forward Pe→Stable
- Quality Below Minimum Threshold→Stable
- High Short Interest Options Skew↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026
Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Energy · Thermal Coal
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.32: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Peabody Energy operates 16 active coal mines in the U.S. and Australia through four segments — Seaborne Thermal, Seaborne Metallurgical, Powder River Basin, and Other U.S. Thermal — producing thermal coal for electricity generators and metallurgical coal for steelmakers. The... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.32: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Peabody Energy Corporation
About Peabody Energy Corporation
Peabody Energy's 16 active mines in the United States and Australia produced 120.3 million tons of coal in 2025, with seaborne operations (Seaborne Thermal and Seaborne Metallurgical segments) representing approximately 51% of coal supply agreement revenues and U.S. Thermal segments (Powder River Basin and Other U.S. Thermal) accounting for the remaining 49%. Metallurgical coal sold to global steelmakers contributed approximately 27% of 2025 revenues, and total sales backlog reached 238 million tons as of January 1, 2026.
Long-term coal supply agreements covered approximately 87% of worldwide sales volumes in 2025, with the five largest customers generating 25% of revenues under 19 contracts expiring between 2025 and 2028; the largest single customer contributed roughly $291 million (about 8% of revenues) with contracts expiring in 2026. Australian export operations ship through five east coast terminals — including Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal in Queensland and Port Kembla and Newcastle in New South Wales — under take-or-pay arrangements totaling $1.0 billion with terms up to 19 years, converting variable transportation costs into fixed obligations. Principal U.S. thermal competitors include Alliance Resource Partners, Core Natural Resources, and American Consolidated Natural Resources; major international seaborne rivals include Glencore, BHP, and Whitehaven Coal Limited.
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Take-or-pay contractual obligations represent a fixed-cost floor that could weigh on profitability if production is curtailed: the $1.0 billion in port and rail commitments, predominantly in Australia, require minimum payments regardless of shipment volumes. Compounding this exposure, the surety transaction support agreement backing $997.2 million in outstanding surety bonds expires on December 31, 2026; the 10-K states that failure to maintain adequate bonding could invalidate mining permits and halt operations, making the 2026 surety renewal a near-term structural milestone for the company's operating licenses.
See also: Energy · Thermal Coal
From Peabody Energy Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — Peabody Energy Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS BTU Metals Commences Drilling at Hubcap Property — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS B. Riley Securities Upgrades Peabody Energy to Buy, Raises Price Target to $30 — benzinga Oct 26, 2026 positive
- NEWS B. Riley Upgrades Peabody Energy to Buy from Neutral — fiscal.ai Oct 26, 2026 positive
- NEWS BTU Metals Corp. Announces Commencement of Drilling — fiscal.ai Oct 26, 2026 positive
- NEWS Peabody Announces Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release Date — fiscal.ai Oct 20, 2026
Generated 2026-10-30T14:13:22Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicseaborne (international) markets51%10-K Item 1: 'Revenue from Peabody's Seaborne Thermal and Seaborne Metallurgical reportable segments represented approximately 51%...of the Company's total revenue from coal supply agreements'
- MEDIUMCustomerfive largest customers25%10-K Item 1A: '25% of the Company's revenue was derived from coal supply agreements with its five largest customers'
- MEDIUMCommoditymetallurgical coal27%10-K Item 1A: 'metallurgical coal for the global steel industry, which accounted for approximately 27% and 25% of its revenue in 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-21Item 5.02LOWDirector Joe W. Laymon resigned from the Board effective May 20, 2026, for personal health reasons, vacating Compensation Committee and Nominating/Corporate Governance Committee roles. No disagreement cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-07Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved the Peabody Energy Corporation 2026 Incentive Plan at the 2026 Annual Meeting on May 7, 2026; plan took effect immediately upon approval. No executive departure or appointment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.32: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $21.18. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $26.90 (+20.5% upside). Prior stop was $21.18. Stop-loss: $21.18.
Concentration risk — Geographic: seaborne (international) markets (51.0%); Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0).
Peabody Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 7.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover BTU with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $31.
What does Peabody Energy Corporation do?Peabody Energy operates 16 active coal mines in the U.S. and Australia through four segments — Seaborne Thermal,...
Peabody Energy operates 16 active coal mines in the U.S. and Australia through four segments — Seaborne Thermal, Seaborne Metallurgical, Powder River Basin, and Other U.S. Thermal — producing thermal coal for electricity generators and metallurgical coal for steelmakers. The company produced 120.3 million tons in 2025 and employs approximately 5,400 people.