Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $27.40 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: capacity providers (insurance/reinsurance panel).
Neptune Insurance Holdings is a data-driven managing general agent (MGA) specializing in private flood insurance, distributed through a nationwide agency network. It underwrites policies on behalf of 40 capacity providers (including 32 reinsurers) under 8 insurance programs... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $27.40 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: capacity providers (insurance/reinsurance panel). Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-14Recent Developments — Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. 2026 Q1 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:NP) 2026-04-22 - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- NEWS Neptune Insurance Posts Strong Q1 Growth, Approves Buyback - TipRanks — TipRanks positive
- NEWS NEPTUNE INSURANCE ($NP) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS Earnings Flash (NP) Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Reports Q1 Revenue $37.8M, vs. FactSet Est of $37.1M - marketscreene — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (NP) Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Posts Q1 Adjusted EPS $0.09 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.09 - ma — marketscreener.com neutral
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHcounterpartycapacity providers (insurance/reinsurance panel)10-K Item 1A: 'Our business may be harmed if one or more of our relationships with capacity providers are terminated or are reduced, if we fail to maintain good relationships with such capacity providers, if we become dependent upon a limited number of capacity providers'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $27.40 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: capacity providers (insurance/reinsurance panel). Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $25.48. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $28.91 (+5.5% upside). Prior stop was $25.48. Stop-loss: $25.48.
Concentration risk — Counterparty: capacity providers (insurance/reinsurance panel); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 42.7). TrendMatrix value score: 2.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover NP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $30.
What does Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. do?Neptune Insurance Holdings is a data-driven managing general agent (MGA) specializing in private flood insurance,...
Neptune Insurance Holdings is a data-driven managing general agent (MGA) specializing in private flood insurance, distributed through a nationwide agency network. It underwrites policies on behalf of 40 capacity providers (including 32 reinsurers) under 8 insurance programs without taking balance sheet risk; revenue is fee-based commissions and policyholder fees, generating $159.6M revenue and 59.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin in fiscal 2025. Its AI-powered Triton underwriting engine delivered a lifetime written loss ratio of 24.7% since inception.