Value
2.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 42.0x
- ▸Expensive valuation
NP · Why this verdict
Why Neptune Insurance Holdings (NP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 7.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
6.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.7 |
| EPS growth | 2.6 |
- ▸Strong growth: 29% YoY
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 2.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 4.0 |
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 3.2 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $297,849,401 (7.989% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.4 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 6.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.4 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.19
Upside
-2.3%
Downside
12.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.19 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.8, Sentiment at 6.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.2; the weakest are Value at 2.0, Catalyst at 2.7, and Insider at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.