Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.59: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 8.33; Negative price momentum.
Goosehead Insurance is a fast-growing independent insurance agency distributing personal lines policies through corporate agents and franchisees across the U.S., partnering with 200+ carriers. It earns commission revenue from carriers and royalty/fees from franchisees.... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.59: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 8.33; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of Carriers10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a significant portion of our commission revenues from a limited number of Carriers, the loss of which would result in additional expense and loss of market share.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-22Item 5.02LOWJohn Martin appointed as Chief Financial Officer effective April 20, 2026. No prior CFO departure described in this filing. No reason cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-08Item 5.02LOWAmendment disclosing Separation Agreement for former General Counsel John O'Connor, dated April 3, 2026. O'Connor to provide consulting through September 30, 2026. No new departure event.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-31Item 5.02MEDIUMGeneral Counsel John O'Connor left effective immediately March 30, 2026; no reason initially disclosed. Martin Ellis Thornthwaite appointed as General Counsel effective immediately as successor.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOWLouis Goldberg appointed to Goosehead Insurance Board of Directors effective February 18, 2026, also to Nominating and Governance Committee. Routine board appointment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Volatile — 5.8% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.59: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 8.33; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Prior stop was $41.76. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $58.80 (+31.0% upside). Prior stop was $41.76. Stop-loss: $41.76.
Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.8% YoY), High leverage (D/E 1.9).
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. trades at a P/E of 39.3 (forward 16.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover GSHD with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $68.
What does Goosehead Insurance, Inc. do?Goosehead Insurance is a fast-growing independent insurance agency distributing personal lines policies through...
Goosehead Insurance is a fast-growing independent insurance agency distributing personal lines policies through corporate agents and franchisees across the U.S., partnering with 200+ carriers. It earns commission revenue from carriers and royalty/fees from franchisees. Proprietary technology drives efficiency via its quoting and service platforms.