Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.24: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 3.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.92; Negative price momentum.
Goosehead Insurance is an independent personal lines insurance agency with 1,009 franchise locations and 13 corporate offices; Total Written Premium grew 17% to $4.4B in 2025. Revenue comes from commissions (14% average on new business, 12% on renewals in 2025) and royalties... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.24: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 3.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.92; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — Goosehead Insurance, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS GSHD (Goosehead Insurance Inc.) reports 9.1 percent Q4 2025 EPS beat, shares rise 1.39 percent on positive market reacti — UBND thành phố Hải Phòng positive
- NEWS GSHD Projects Strong Growth in FY26 Total Written Premiums - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Goosehead Insurance Delivers Strong First-Quarter 2026 Performance - TipRanks — TipRanks positive
- NEWS Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) Announces New CFO and President - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS GOOSEHEAD INSURANCE ($GSHD) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings, Stock Rises - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of Carriers10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a significant portion of our commission revenues from a limited number of Carriers, the loss of which would result in additional expense and loss of market share'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOWLouis Goldberg appointed to Board of Directors effective February 18, 2026, and to the Nominating and Governance Committee. No reason cited for prior vacancy.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-31Item 5.02LOWGeneral Counsel John O'Connor left effective March 30, 2026; Martin Ellis Thornthwaite (formerly SVP at RealPage) appointed as General Counsel effective immediately. Clean handoff.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-08Item 5.02LOWO'Connor Separation Agreement (dated April 3, 2026) provides consulting through Sep 30, 2026, 6 months base salary, and continued equity vesting. Supplementary to March 30 departure disclosure.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-22Item 5.02LOWJohn Martin appointed Chief Financial Officer effective April 20, 2026. No predecessor departure notice filed separately; no disagreement cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Volatile — 7.3% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.24: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 3.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.92; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $34.24. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $56.70 (+54.0% upside). Prior stop was $34.24. Stop-loss: $34.24.
Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Revenue declining (-28.3% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -123.8%), High leverage (D/E 2.1).
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.3 (forward 13.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover GSHD with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $65.
What does Goosehead Insurance, Inc. do?Goosehead Insurance is an independent personal lines insurance agency with 1,009 franchise locations and 13 corporate...
Goosehead Insurance is an independent personal lines insurance agency with 1,009 franchise locations and 13 corporate offices; Total Written Premium grew 17% to $4.4B in 2025. Revenue comes from commissions (14% average on new business, 12% on renewals in 2025) and royalties from franchisees; 85% client retention rate and $4.4B TWP across 200+ carrier relationships.