Skip to main content
NLYAnnaly Capital Management Inc.Hold6.3·$22.36+1.66%
Open full analysis

Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Annaly Capital Management is an internally-managed mortgage REIT investing in residential mortgage finance through three groups: Agency MBS (89% of portfolio), Residential Credit (7%), and Mortgage Servicing Rights (4%). It earns income from the spread between asset yields and... Read more

$22.36-1.2% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#3 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield13.64%(5y avg 13.69%)Payout90.32%
Stop $21.54Target $22.09(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$24.32+8.8%11 analysts
$22.09our TP
$22.36price
$24.32mean
$25

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Margin of safety: 53%
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Agency MBS (89.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.1
P/E (Fwd)7.4
Mkt Cap$16.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn87.4%
ROE15.0%
Rev Growth48.8%
Beta1.25
Dividend13.64%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.73neutral
IV61%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfolioAgency MBS89%
    10-K Item 1: 'Agency (1)(2)| 89%| | 62%' (percentage of portfolio and capital allocation at December 31, 2025)

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.1
Gap
5.0
52w Position
8.9
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.88Resistance $22.54

Price Targets

$22
$22
A.Upside-1.2%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NLY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $22.09 (-1.2%), stop $21.54 (−3.8%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NLY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.09 (-1.2% upside). Target $22.09 (-1.2%), stop $21.54 (−3.8%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $21.54.

What are the risks of investing in NLY?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is NLY overvalued or undervalued?

Annaly Capital Management Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.1 (forward 7.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NLY?

17 analysts cover NLY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Annaly Capital Management Inc. do?Annaly Capital Management is an internally-managed mortgage REIT investing in residential mortgage finance through...

Annaly Capital Management is an internally-managed mortgage REIT investing in residential mortgage finance through three groups: Agency MBS (89% of portfolio), Residential Credit (7%), and Mortgage Servicing Rights (4%). It earns income from the spread between asset yields and funding costs, with $81.9B in repurchase agreements outstanding at December 31, 2025 and an economic leverage ratio of 5.6:1. Annaly is headquartered in New York and manages 212 employees.

Related stocks: RITM (Rithm Capital Corp.) · EFC (Ellington Financial Inc.) · STWD (STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S) · BXMT (Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.) · ARR (ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.)
Home Stocks NLY

Latest news

Latest News

MarketBeat54d agoAnalyst
Cổng thông tin điện tử tỉnh Tây Ninh54d agoEarnings
MSN55d ago
GuruFocus55d ago
Yahoo Finance61d ago
AD HOC NEWS61d ago
Yahoo Finance55d ago
Quiver Quantitative55d agoEarnings
Seeking Alpha55d agoEarnings
Business Wire55d agoEarnings
MarketBeat62d ago
MarketBeat63d agoEarnings
MSN7d ago
Yahoo Finance7d ago
MarketBeat53d agoAnalyst
Minichart60d ago
MarketBeat61d ago
MarketBeat12d ago
GuruFocus12d agoAnalyst
The Motley Fool15d ago
Loading more...