Annaly Capital Management has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and strong 49% year-over-year growth, but its 89% Agency MBS concentration and current price above analyst consensus make the near-term risk-reward unfavorable for adding new exposure.
Thesis pillars
- Agency Mbs Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Strong Revenue Growth↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Wait for pullback to $21.39. BUY gates pass at $22.69, but concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $21.39 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.
Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency MBS (89% of portfolio at December 31, 2025) alongside residential credit and mortgage servicing rights. It earns net income from the spread between asset yields... Read more
Wait for pullback to $21.39. BUY gates pass at $22.69, but concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $21.39 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-6.8% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-28Recent Developments — Annaly Capital Management Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Beats On Q2 Earnings, Is The Stock Still Cheap? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Beats On Q2 Earnings, Is The Stock Still Cheap? - Yahoo! Finance Canada — Yahoo! Finance Canada positive
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Beats On Q2 Earnings, Is The Stock Still Cheap? - Yahoo Finance UK — Yahoo Finance UK positive
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management (NYSE:NLY) Receives "Buy" Rating from JonesTrading - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-07-31T02:43:38Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductAgency MBS89%10-K Item 1: 'Agency (1)(2)| 89%| | 62%| | 87%| | 59%'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $21.39. BUY gates pass at $22.69, but concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $21.39 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-6.8% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $23.01 (+1.4%), stop $20.53 (−10.5%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $23.01 (-6.8% upside). Target $23.01 (+1.4%), stop $20.53 (−10.5%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Stop-loss: $20.53.
Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Annaly Capital Management Inc. trades at a P/E of 5.4 (forward 7.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
17 analysts cover NLY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $24.
What does Annaly Capital Management Inc. do?Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency...
Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency MBS (89% of portfolio at December 31, 2025) alongside residential credit and mortgage servicing rights. It earns net income from the spread between asset yields and borrowing costs, financing its portfolio with $81.9 billion of repurchase agreements outstanding at year-end 2025 and an economic leverage ratio of 5.6:1.