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Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Annaly Capital Management is an internally-managed REIT investing in residential mortgage finance through three groups: Agency MBS (Fannie/Freddie/Ginnie guaranteed), Residential Credit (non-Agency whole loans), and MSR (mortgage servicing rights). It earns the spread between... Read more

$22.89+8.7% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#2 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
Entry $20.75(200-day MA)Stop $19.93Target $22.55(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1Setup A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$24.32+6.2%11 analysts
$22.55our TP
$22.89price
$24.32mean
$23
$25

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $22.91 has reached target $22.55. No upside to wait for. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val4.7Qual6.9Grw10.0Mom4.4Sent6.4Ins5.0Peer6.5Tech4.1Risk6.96.3OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.4
P/E (Fwd)7.7
Mkt Cap$16.8B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn87.4%
ROE15.0%
Rev Growth48.8%
Beta1.30
Dividend12.23%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV43%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicgeographic concentration in residential mortgage portfolios
    10-K Item 1A: 'Geographic concentration exposes investors to greater risk of default and loss.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.19Resistance $23.01

Price Targets

$20
$21
$23
A.Upside-1.5%
A.R:R-1.0:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.5%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.6% upside)
! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NLY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $22.91 has reached target $22.55. No upside to wait for. Target $22.55 (-1.5%), stop $19.93 (−14.9%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NLY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.55 (+8.7% upside). Target $22.55 (-1.5%), stop $19.93 (−14.9%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $19.93.

What are the risks of investing in NLY?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is NLY overvalued or undervalued?

Annaly Capital Management Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.4 (forward 7.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NLY?

17 analysts cover NLY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Annaly Capital Management Inc. do?Annaly Capital Management is an internally-managed REIT investing in residential mortgage finance through three groups:...

Annaly Capital Management is an internally-managed REIT investing in residential mortgage finance through three groups: Agency MBS (Fannie/Freddie/Ginnie guaranteed), Residential Credit (non-Agency whole loans), and MSR (mortgage servicing rights). It earns the spread between asset yields and borrowing costs. Uses leverage as a fundamental part of its investment strategy.

Related stocks: RITM (Rithm Capital Corp.) · STWD (STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S) · BXMT (Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.) · ARR (ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.) · DX (Dynex Capital, Inc.)