ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) Stock Analysis
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Sell if holding. At $17.63, A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Agency Securities; Concentration risk — Supplier: BUCKLER (47.0%).
ARMOUR Residential REIT is an externally managed Maryland corporation investing in a leveraged portfolio of Agency MBS (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae) and U.S. Treasury Securities, financed primarily through short-term repurchase agreements at 6-10x equity leverage.... Read more
Sell if holding. At $17.63, A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Agency Securities; Concentration risk — Supplier: BUCKLER (47.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductAgency Securities10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our Agency Securities are issued or guaranteed by GSEs, which we consider the functional equivalent of the full faith and credit of the U.S Government.'
- HIGHSupplierBUCKLER47%10-K Item 1A: 'BUCKLER accounted for 47.0% and 45.7%, respectively, of our aggregate borrowings'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $17.63, A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Agency Securities; Concentration risk — Supplier: BUCKLER (47.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $16.96. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $17.42 (-1.2% upside). Prior stop was $16.96. Stop-loss: $16.96.
Concentration risk — Product: Agency Securities; Concentration risk — Supplier: BUCKLER (47.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.0 (forward 5.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover ARR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $18.
What does ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. do?ARMOUR Residential REIT is an externally managed Maryland corporation investing in a leveraged portfolio of Agency MBS...
ARMOUR Residential REIT is an externally managed Maryland corporation investing in a leveraged portfolio of Agency MBS (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae) and U.S. Treasury Securities, financed primarily through short-term repurchase agreements at 6-10x equity leverage. Managed by ACM under an automatically renewing 5-year management agreement. Affiliate BUCKLER serves as largest financing counterparty and ATM placement agent.