Nike has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average surprise of 40%, while trading 21% below analyst consensus targets, but concentrated supply chain exposure in Vietnam and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 3.46 present material risks heading into near-term earnings.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Supply Chain Vietnam Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Analyst Upside Potential↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jul 15, 2026
Nike, Inc. (NKE) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
Sell if holding. At $37.15, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam footwear manufacturing (52.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: four footwear contract manufacturers (60.0%).
NIKE designs and sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories under the NIKE, Jordan and Converse brands, through wholesale accounts, 988 company-owned stores and digital platforms in over 40 countries. Sales in the United States were about 44% of fiscal 2026... Read more
Sell if holding. At $37.15, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam footwear manufacturing (52.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: four footwear contract manufacturers (60.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: speculative.
About Nike, Inc.
About Nike, Inc.
NIKE operates 347 retail stores in the United States and 641 outside it, selling athletic footwear, apparel and equipment under the NIKE, Jordan and Converse brands. Sales in the United States made up 44% of total revenues in fiscal 2026, compared with 43% in fiscal 2025, while non-U.S. sales accounted for 56%. Company-owned and Converse digital commerce platforms run in over 40 countries.
The company sells through two paths: wholesale accounts, including independent distributors, licensees and sales representatives, and NIKE Direct, which combines owned stores with digital sales. Nearly all footwear and apparel is made by independent contract manufacturers. As of May 31, 2026, 15 contract manufacturers produced NIKE Brand footwear in 95 factories across 11 countries, and four of them each exceeded 10% of footwear production, totaling 60%. Apparel came from 64 contract manufacturers in 321 factories across 34 countries, with the top six accounting for 54%. No customer accounted for 10% or more of consolidated revenues in fiscal 2026; the three largest U.S. customers represented 29% of U.S. sales, and the three largest customers outside the United States 16% of non-U.S. sales. Wholesale customers can place orders five to six months ahead under the futures ordering program. The filing names adidas, Anta, ASICS, Lululemon, New Balance and On among its competitors.
Show full overview
Sourcing geography is the sharpest lens. Factories in Vietnam, Indonesia and China produced 52%, 27% and 16% of NIKE Brand footwear in fiscal 2026, so a tariff or trade-policy change aimed at those countries may raise costs faster than alternate sources can be built. The 10-K says protectionist measures have already increased product costs and that alternate supply might not be as cost-effective. On October 1, 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K a multi-year program called Pace, which includes initiatives to optimize the global supply chain and carries expected pre-tax charges of $1.0 billion, on top of $0.3 billion of severance recognized in fiscal 2026.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
From Nike, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Nike, Inc.
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Oct 1, 2026 MEDIUM Item 2.05: Announced multi-year enterprise program 'Pace' (builds on March 2026 cost realignment) to optimize supply chain, add an India campus and realign into three geographies; expected pre-tax charges about $1.0 billion, mostly severance, about $0.3 billion in fiscal 2027, remainder through fiscal 2031.
Latest news
- NEWS Nike (NKE) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Nike Stock (NKE) Hits 52-Week Low as CFO Departs and Turnaround Drags On - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- NEWS Why Is NKE Stock Falling Premarket Today? - Stocktwits — Stocktwits negative
- NEWS Nike (NKE) Stock Falls on Q4 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS NKE Stock In Focus: JPMorgan Doubts Nike’s Turnaround Potential, But Retail Disagrees - Stocktwits — Stocktwits negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicVietnam footwear manufacturing52%10-K Item 1: 'factories in Vietnam, Indonesia and China manufactured approximately 52%, 27% and 16% of total NIKE Brand footwear'
- HIGHSupplierfour footwear contract manufacturers60%10-K Item 1: 'four footwear contract manufacturers each accounted for greater than 10% of footwear production and in the aggregate accounted for approximately 60% of NIKE Brand footwear production'
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States44%10-K Item 1: 'NIKE Brand and Converse sales in the United States accounted for approximately 44% of total revenues'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-10-01Item 2.05MEDIUMAnnounced multi-year enterprise program 'Pace' (builds on March 2026 cost realignment) to optimize supply chain, add an India campus and realign into three geographies; expected pre-tax charges about $1.0 billion, mostly severance, about $0.3 billion in fiscal 2027, remainder through fiscal 2031.SEC filing →
- 2026-09-16Item 5.02LOWBoard expanded to twelve directors and appointed Alexandre Arnault (Deputy CEO of Moet Hennessy) as director for a term expiring at the 2027 annual meeting; committee assignments not yet determined.SEC filing →
- 2026-09-10Item 5.02LOWShareholders approved the amended Employee Stock Purchase Plan on September 8, 2026, adding 16,000,000 Class B shares authorized for issuance. Routine compensatory plan change.SEC filing →
- 2026-08-10Item 5.02MEDIUMChief Accounting Officer and Corporate Controller Johanna Nielsen to resign effective September 4, 2026 for another opportunity, no disagreement cited. CFO David Denton becomes interim controller and principal accounting officer until a successor is appointed.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -4.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $37.15, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam footwear manufacturing (52.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: four footwear contract manufacturers (60.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Prior stop was $34.85. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $33.58 reached (−9.6% from $37.15); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $34.85. Stop-loss: $34.85.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam footwear manufacturing (52.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: four footwear contract manufacturers (60.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Nike, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.9 (forward 23.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
48 analysts cover NKE with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $37.
What does Nike, Inc. do?NIKE designs and sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories under the NIKE, Jordan and Converse...
NIKE designs and sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories under the NIKE, Jordan and Converse brands, through wholesale accounts, 988 company-owned stores and digital platforms in over 40 countries. Sales in the United States were about 44% of fiscal 2026 revenues and non-U.S. sales about 56%. Nearly all products are made by independent contract manufacturers, led by Vietnam at about 52% of footwear.