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SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

N-able screens cheap on both earnings and cash-flow measures, but a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average and falling analyst estimates complicate the value case despite strong balance-sheet quality signals.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value Multiple Support↓Deteriorating
  • Positive Fcf Despite Gaap Loss→Stable
  • Confirmed Downtrend Below 200ma↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

N-able, Inc. (NABL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellValueGrowthHigh Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Earnings in 6 days (2026-11-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5.29 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the United States (50.4%).

N-able is a global cybersecurity provider whose software platform delivers unified endpoint management, security operations and data protection to more than 500,000 businesses through a channel-led model of managed service providers, value-added resellers and distributors. The... Read more

$5.29-23.0% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#36 of 44 Information Technology Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.01%
Stop $4.92Analyst target $4.07(reached)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst consensus$4.68-11.5%5 analysts
$5.29price
$4.68mean
$4
$8

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5.29 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the United States (50.4%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 20266d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the United States (50.4%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)12.3
Mkt Cap$999M
EV/EBITDA19.8
Profit Mgn-1.0%
ROE-0.6%
Rev Growth5.9%
Beta0.46
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV97%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicoutside the United States50%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our business is global, with 50.4%, 51.8% and 51.2% of our revenue generated outside of the United States for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-11Item 5.02LOW
    On May 7, 2026 director Ann Johnson notified N-able's Board of her resignation, effective immediately, from the Board and all committees. Resignation was not due to any disagreement with the company.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.2
52w Position
2.1
Gap
6.0
GatesA.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
77 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $4.16Resistance $5.31

Price Targets

A.Upside-23.0%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-23.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NABL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5.29 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the United States (50.4%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Prior stop was $4.92. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the NABL stock price target?

Analyst target $4.07 reached (−23.0% from $5.29); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $4.92. Stop-loss: $4.92.

What are the risks of investing in NABL?

Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the United States (50.4%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).

Is NABL overvalued or undervalued?

N-able, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NABL?

12 analysts cover NABL with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $5.

What does N-able, Inc. do?N-able is a global cybersecurity provider whose software platform delivers unified endpoint management, security...

N-able is a global cybersecurity provider whose software platform delivers unified endpoint management, security operations and data protection to more than 500,000 businesses through a channel-led model of managed service providers, value-added resellers and distributors. The company generated $511.4 million in revenue for 2025, up 9.7% from $466.1 million in 2024, with 50.4% of revenue earned outside the United States. Customers with more than $50,000 in annualized recurring revenue grew 13.7% to 2,671 in 2025 and represented approximately 61% of total ARR.

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