Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
NABL · Why this verdict
Why N-able (NABL) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
N-able trades at a forward P/E of 8.6x with a PEG ratio of just 0.01, screening as attractively valued relative to its growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E multiple should expand toward peer averages over the next 12 months if the value thesis holds. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock may be cheap because earnings estimates are trending down, which could mean the low multiple already prices in deteriorating fundamentals. | ||
N-able generates positive free cash flow (FCF margin 15%, FCF yield 10.5%) despite a GAAP net loss, and scores a strong 8/9 on the Piotroski F-Score. Quality breakdown | FCF margin should hold at or above 15% and the Piotroski score should stay strong over the next 12 months, confirming underlying financial health. | →Stable |
| CounterA GAAP loss alongside positive FCF can also reflect aggressive capitalization of costs, which may not persist if accounting adjustments normalize. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the MA sloping down -10.0% over 30 days, a confirmed downtrend even after a recent overbought bear-market rally (RSI 79). Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim and hold above the 200-day moving average with the MA slope turning positive over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe overbought RSI reading and rising on-balance volume suggest the bear rally could continue and eventually reverse the downtrend. | ||
Analyst earnings estimates have been trending down, falling 8.3% over the last 30 days, a bearish forward signal that offsets the headline value case. Sentiment breakdown | The 30-day estimate revision trend should turn positive over the next 12 months if the underlying business is stabilizing. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimate cuts could already be reflected in the current valuation, meaning further downside may be limited. | ||
N-able trades at a forward P/E of 8.6x with a PEG ratio of just 0.01, screening as attractively valued relative to its growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E multiple should expand toward peer averages over the next 12 months if the value thesis holds.
CounterThe stock may be cheap because earnings estimates are trending down, which could mean the low multiple already prices in deteriorating fundamentals.
N-able generates positive free cash flow (FCF margin 15%, FCF yield 10.5%) despite a GAAP net loss, and scores a strong 8/9 on the Piotroski F-Score.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin should hold at or above 15% and the Piotroski score should stay strong over the next 12 months, confirming underlying financial health.
CounterA GAAP loss alongside positive FCF can also reflect aggressive capitalization of costs, which may not persist if accounting adjustments normalize.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the MA sloping down -10.0% over 30 days, a confirmed downtrend even after a recent overbought bear-market rally (RSI 79).
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim and hold above the 200-day moving average with the MA slope turning positive over the next 12 months.
CounterThe overbought RSI reading and rising on-balance volume suggest the bear rally could continue and eventually reverse the downtrend.
Analyst earnings estimates have been trending down, falling 8.3% over the last 30 days, a bearish forward signal that offsets the headline value case.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The 30-day estimate revision trend should turn positive over the next 12 months if the underlying business is stabilizing.
CounterEstimate cuts could already be reflected in the current valuation, meaning further downside may be limited.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
N-able screens cheap on both earnings and cash-flow measures, but a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average and falling analyst estimates complicate the value case despite strong balance-sheet quality signals.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 3.9 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 15%, FCF yield 10.2%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.1 |
| MACD | 9.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 83)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 57%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 6.8 |
Technical
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 1.1 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 9.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 9.8 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
- ▸High IV: 139%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 4.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.5 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.2>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.45
Upside
+36.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -52% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.9; weakest: Technical at 1.9. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Insider at 7.5, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 1.9, Peer rank at 4.6, and Quality at 4.8. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Multiple Support
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 8.6x while the PEG ratio exceeds 1.0.
- P2Confirmed Downtrend Below 200ma
Trip ifPrice closes back above the 200-day moving average and the MA slope rises above 0%/30d.
- P3Positive Fcf Despite Gaap Loss
Trip ifFCF margin falls below 5% from the current 15%.
- P4Falling Analyst Estimates
Trip ifThe 30-day earnings estimate revision rises above 0% from the current -8.3%.