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MWAMUELLER WATER PRODUCTSHold5.6·$25.62-0.04%
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MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $25.62, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 9.3%.

Mueller Water Products manufactures and markets water infrastructure products — valves, fire hydrants, metering systems, and leak detection — for North American utilities and construction markets through Water Flow Solutions (58% of revenues) and Water Management Solutions... Read more

$25.62+9.3% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#21 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.48%
IncomeYield1.08%(5y avg 1.48%)Payout20.76%sustainable
Stop $24.48Target $28.01(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$32.20+25.7%5 analysts
$28.01our TP
$25.62price
$32.20mean
$35

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $25.62, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 9.3%. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.3%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.4
P/E (Fwd)16.2
Mkt Cap$4.0B
EV/EBITDA11.9
Profit Mgn14.2%
ROE21.3%
Rev Growth5.5%
Beta1.03
Dividend1.08%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.85neutral
IV76%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop 2 distributors37%
    10-K Item 1: 'our two largest distributors, which together accounted for approximately 37%, 38% and 35% of our gross sales in 2025, 2024 and 2023 fiscal years, respectively'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-23Item 5.02LOW
    Scott Floyd appointed EVP and Chief Commercial Officer effective February 23, 2026. Internal promotion from SVP Sales and Marketing; no departure of an existing officer.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.0>=4.5A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $24.18Resistance $26.33

Price Targets

$24
$28
A.Upside+9.3%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts9
Consensus3.8/5
Avg Target$32

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MWA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $25.62, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 9.3%. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $28.01 (+9.3%), stop $24.48 (−4.7%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MWA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.01 (+9.3% upside). Target $28.01 (+9.3%), stop $24.48 (−4.7%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $24.48.

What are the risks of investing in MWA?

Thin upside margin: 9.3%.

Is MWA overvalued or undervalued?

MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS trades at a P/E of 19.4 (forward 16.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MWA?

9 analysts cover MWA with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $32.

What does MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS do?Mueller Water Products manufactures and markets water infrastructure products — valves, fire hydrants, metering...

Mueller Water Products manufactures and markets water infrastructure products — valves, fire hydrants, metering systems, and leak detection — for North American utilities and construction markets through Water Flow Solutions (58% of revenues) and Water Management Solutions (42%). Consolidated net sales were $1,429.7M in 2025, sold primarily through waterworks distributors.

Related stocks: AMSC (American Superconductor Corpora) · CXT (Crane NXT, Co.) · MIDD (The Middleby Corporation) · EPAC (Enerpac Tool Group Corp.) · CSW (CSW Industrials, Inc.)
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