Mueller Water Products has a 3-of-4 earnings beat record, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and trades at an attractive valuation relative to industrial peers, but momentum has softened below critical thresholds and the upside-to-risk ratio remains too thin for a new position at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Execution↑Improving
- Strong Quality Piotroski Score→Stable
- Attractive Peer Relative Valuation→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 19, 2025
MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
Sell if holding. At $22.78, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source or limited-source suppliers.
Mueller Water Products manufactures and markets products for water transmission, distribution, and measurement in North America through two segments — Water Flow Solutions (58% of fiscal 2025 net sales) and Water Management Solutions (42%). The company generated $1,429.7 million... Read more
Sell if holding. At $22.78, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source or limited-source suppliers. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS
About MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS
Mueller Water Products generated $1,429.7 million in consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, with Water Flow Solutions contributing $824.9 million (58% of total) and Water Management Solutions contributing $604.8 million (42%). Combined backlog reached $320.7 million at September 30, 2025. Canadian customers accounted for approximately 5% to 6% of each segment's net sales, reflecting a predominantly North American market focus. The company operates ten manufacturing facilities across the United States, Israel, and China.
Mueller sells primarily to national and regional waterworks distributors on a non-exclusive basis; its two largest distributors together accounted for approximately 37% of gross sales in fiscal 2025 and typically do not operate under long-term contracts. Sales cycles for metering systems often extend over several years, and end users tend to be reluctant to switch away from historically preferred brands — a dynamic that reinforces Mueller's installed base of iron gate valves and fire hydrants. Principal competitors in iron gate valves and fire hydrants include McWane, Inc. and American Cast Iron Pipe Company; in water metering, Sensus, Neptune Technology Group Inc., and Badger Meter, Inc. are primary rivals. Raw materials include brass ingot, scrap steel, sand, and resin; purchased parts and raw materials together represented approximately 43% of cost of sales in 2025. The company maintains several single-source or limited-source supplier relationships, and disruption to any such relationship could impair product availability and result in delays and lost profits.
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Mueller Water Products' repair products are manufactured at a facility in Ariel, Israel that experienced a temporary shutdown in October 2023 following the onset of the Israel-Hamas war; the facility reopened in November 2023 but continued conflict in the region could increase the likelihood of future supply interruptions and continued to impact the company's ability to produce and deliver products on time. High transportation costs — driven by the size and weight of water infrastructure products and relatively few manufacturing sites — add a further cost layer that may make Mueller's products less competitive against locally manufactured alternatives, particularly if energy and fuel costs rise.
See also: Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
From MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS
Latest news
- NEWS Mueller Water Products Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.07 (NYSE:MWA) - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Mueller Water Products Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.07 (NYSE:MWA) - marketbeat.com — marketbeat.com positive
- NEWS Mueller Water Products Number of Employees 2026 | Employee Count & Headcount Data - Revelio Labs — Revelio Labs neutral
- NEWS Mueller Water Products declares $0.070 quarterly dividend By Investing.com - Investing.com UK — Investing.com UK neutral
- NEWS Mueller Water Products Announces Quarterly Dividend - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
Generated 2026-10-30T11:22:45Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertwo largest distributors37%10-K Item 1: 'our two largest distributors, which together accounted for approximately 37%... of our gross sales in 2025, 2024 and 2023 fiscal years'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source or limited-source suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'Our reliance on vendors for certain products, some of which are single-source or limited-source suppliers'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $22.78, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source or limited-source suppliers. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Prior stop was $21.74. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $23.49 (+3.1% upside). Prior stop was $21.74. Stop-loss: $21.74.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source or limited-source suppliers; Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS trades at a P/E of 16.5 (forward 14.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover MWA with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $27.
What does MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS do?Mueller Water Products manufactures and markets products for water transmission, distribution, and measurement in North...
Mueller Water Products manufactures and markets products for water transmission, distribution, and measurement in North America through two segments — Water Flow Solutions (58% of fiscal 2025 net sales) and Water Management Solutions (42%). The company generated $1,429.7 million in consolidated net sales in 2025, serving municipalities and construction industries primarily through national and regional waterworks distributors.