Value
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.7 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 6.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.06
MWA · Why this verdict
Why MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.1 |
| ROA | 6.9 |
| Gross margin | 3.5 |
| Op margin | 8.8 |
| Net margin | 7.1 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 3.8 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 48% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 5.1 |
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
4.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 4.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,636,520 (0.041% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.4 |
| quality rank | 7.6 |
| growth rank | 3.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.0 |
| support resistance | 4.8 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 9.5 |
| implied vol | 2.8 |
| beta | 6.9 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Dividend: 109.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:56d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.08
Upside
+10.4%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $4.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.08 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3, Value at 6.8, and Quality at 6.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.5, Insider at 4.5, and Growth at 4.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.08 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.