Caseys General Stores, Inc. (CASY) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $881.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away).
Casey's General Stores operates 2,904 convenience stores across 20 US states as of April 30, 2025, predominantly in smaller Midwest and Southern communities under the Casey's, CEFCO, GoodStop, and other brands. Retail fuel sales represented 61.3% of total 2025 revenue,... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $881.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.70, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Caseys General Stores, Inc.
About Caseys General Stores, Inc.
Casey's General Stores operated 2,904 convenience stores across 20 states at April 30, 2025, adding 198 CEFCO-branded locations through the November 2024 Fikes acquisition and entering Texas (148 stores), Alabama, Florida, and Mississippi for the first time. Retail fuel revenue reached $9.8 billion in fiscal 2025 at 61.3% of total revenue, with about 71% of stores in communities of fewer than 20,000 residents and approximately half of all locations in Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois.
Casey's earns margin on retail fuel — self-distributed via a fleet of approximately 500 tractors and a fuel terminal in Waco, Texas acquired with Fikes — and on in-store merchandise, particularly prepared foods. Prepared food and dispensed beverages alongside grocery and general merchandise generated about 34% of total revenue over the past three fiscal years but approximately 63% of revenue less cost of goods sold, with prepared food margin averaging about 58%. Tobacco and nicotine products averaged roughly 9% of total revenue over the same period. The Casey's Rewards loyalty program exceeded 9 million enrolled members at fiscal year-end, supporting repeat visit frequency. The company owns substantially all of its stores and three distribution centers in Ankeny, Iowa; Terre Haute, Indiana; and Joplin, Missouri, operating with 23,338 full-time and 25,934 part-time Team Members and no collective bargaining agreements.
Show full overview
With fuel representing nearly two-thirds of Casey's revenue, the company faces structural demand risk from EV adoption, hybrid vehicles, and fuel efficiency standards that could reduce petroleum-based motor fuel demand and decrease store traffic across all categories — a risk the 10-K explicitly identifies. Average retail price per gallon fell 7.8% year-over-year to $3.06 in fiscal 2025, while average revenue less cost of goods sold per gallon declined to 38.68 cents from 39.48 cents, illustrating how price compression can weigh on fuel margin even as total gallons sold grew 13% with the expanded store count.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
From Caseys General Stores, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-10Recent Developments — Caseys General Stores, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Casey's General Stores (CASY) Stock Is Trending: Here's What You Should Know - Benzinga — Benzinga neutral
- NEWS Casey's General Stores (CASY) Q4 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS CASEYS GENERAL STORES ($CASY) Releases Q4 2026 Earnings, Stock Rises - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS Casey's General Stores (CASY) Ranked Least Attractively Valued i - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Casey's General Stores (CASY) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-06-10T18:51:37Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $881.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $882.98 (+0.2%), stop $819.55 (−7.6%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $882.98 (+0.2% upside). Target $882.98 (+0.2%), stop $819.55 (−7.6%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Stop-loss: $819.55.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).
Caseys General Stores, Inc. trades at a P/E of 39.7 (forward 33.8). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Hold.
26 analysts cover CASY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $839.
What does Caseys General Stores, Inc. do?Casey's General Stores operates 2,904 convenience stores across 20 US states as of April 30, 2025, predominantly in...
Casey's General Stores operates 2,904 convenience stores across 20 US states as of April 30, 2025, predominantly in smaller Midwest and Southern communities under the Casey's, CEFCO, GoodStop, and other brands. Retail fuel sales represented 61.3% of total 2025 revenue, complemented by high-margin prepared food (including pizza), tobacco, and general merchandise. Approximately half of stores are in Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois.