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MTNVail Resorts, Inc.Sell5.8·$131.26-4.34%
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Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $131.26 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Vail Resorts operates 42 mountain resorts and ski areas across the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Switzerland through Mountain (89% of net revenue) and Lodging (11%) segments. Revenue comes from lift tickets, ski and snowboard lessons, dining, retail/rental, and lodging; pass... Read more

$131.26+2.8% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#4 of 12 Resorts & Casinos
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.30%
IncomeYield6.47%(5y avg 2.23%)Payout191.38%at-risk
Stop $122.07Target $135.00(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$155.17+18.2%12 analysts
$135.00our TP
$131.26price
$155.17mean
$212

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $131.26 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jun 8, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.9): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.6
P/E (Fwd)21.2
Mkt Cap$4.9B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn7.9%
ROE34.6%
Rev Growth-4.7%
Beta0.73
Dividend6.47%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.22bearish
IV54%elevated
Max Pain$80-39.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
2.4
Quality Rank
5.9

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.7
Erm
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MDividend: 647.0%
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $119.90Resistance $139.50

Price Targets

$122
$135
A.Upside+2.8%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.8% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-08 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $131.26 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Prior stop was $122.07. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

What is the MTN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $135.00 (+2.8% upside). Prior stop was $122.07. Stop-loss: $122.07.

What are the risks of investing in MTN?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.9): -1.5.

Is MTN overvalued or undervalued?

Vail Resorts, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.6 (forward 21.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MTN?

17 analysts cover MTN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $155.

What does Vail Resorts, Inc. do?Vail Resorts operates 42 mountain resorts and ski areas across the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Switzerland through...

Vail Resorts operates 42 mountain resorts and ski areas across the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Switzerland through Mountain (89% of net revenue) and Lodging (11%) segments. Revenue comes from lift tickets, ski and snowboard lessons, dining, retail/rental, and lodging; pass products generated 65% of lift revenue in Fiscal 2025 with ~15.4M North American skier visits.

Related stocks: LVS (Las Vegas Sands Corp.) · MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment L) · MCRI (Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.) · RRR (Red Rock Resorts, Inc.) · WYNN (Wynn Resorts, Limited)
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