Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the MTN stock price target?

Take-profit $135.21 (+7.6% upside). Prior stop was $116.83.

Q: What are the risks of investing in MTN?

Concentration risk — Product: pass products (65.0%); Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.9): -1.5; Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum; Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum.

Q: Is MTN overvalued or undervalued?

Vail Resorts, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.3 (forward 18.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about MTN?

17 analysts cover MTN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $155.

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-02

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Sell if holding. At $125.73, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Concentration risk — Product: pass products (65.0%).

Vail Resorts operates 42 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas worldwide in three segments: Mountain (89% of net revenue), Lodging (11%), and Real Estate. Pass products accounted for approximately 65% of total lift revenue in fiscal 2025 with ~82% of combined... Read more

$125.73+7.6% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#10 of 12 Resorts & Casinos

Stop $116.83Target $135.21(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1

Analyst target$155.42+23.6%12 analysts

$135.21our TP

$125.73price

$155.42mean

$212

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Positive insider activity

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: pass products (65.0%)

Thin upside margin: 7.6%

Leverage penalty (D/E 4.9): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.3

P/E (Fwd)18.2

Mkt Cap$4.5B

EV/EBITDA9.5

Profit Mgn7.9%

ROE34.6%

Rev Growth-4.7%

Beta0.80

Dividend6.98%

Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C3.16bearish

IV56%elevated

Max Pain$220+75.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductpass products65%
10-K Item 1A: 'pass products (which for Fiscal 2025 accounted for approximately 65% of the total lift revenue)'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.515%0.97

Quality6.015%0.90

Growth2.815%0.42

Momentum3.110%0.31

Sentiment6.810%0.68

Insider Activity7.010%0.70

Peer Rank3.810%0.38

Technical Setup5.95%0.30

Risk Profile4.15%0.20

Catalyst4.35%0.21

Overall (Σ contributions)5.08

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -4.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

1.3

Earnings Growth

4.2

Declining revenue: -5%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd

0.0

Volume

0.0

Ma Position

1.0

Rsi

4.5

Obv

10.0

Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

0.0

Value Rank

3.8

Quality Rank

6.5

GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 34d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

44 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $118.51Resistance $136.28

Price Targets

$117

$135

A.Upside+7.5%

A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

1/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-06-04 (34d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MTN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $125.73, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Concentration risk — Product: pass products (65.0%). Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $116.83. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the MTN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $135.21 (+7.6% upside). Prior stop was $116.83. Stop-loss: $116.83.

What are the risks of investing in MTN?

Concentration risk — Product: pass products (65.0%); Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.9): -1.5.

Is MTN overvalued or undervalued?

Vail Resorts, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.3 (forward 18.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MTN?

17 analysts cover MTN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $155.

What does Vail Resorts, Inc. do?Vail Resorts operates 42 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas worldwide in three segments: Mountain (89%...