Vail Resorts faces a perfect 4-quarter earnings miss streak and revenues declining -7% year-over-year, with 34% of its float sold short, while its business is heavily concentrated in mountain resort operations and season pass products, creating a challenging near-term outlook.
Thesis pillars
- Mountain Passproduct Concentration→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Miss Streak↓Deteriorating
- High Short Interest Squeeze Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Sep 28, 2026
Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
Sell if holding. At $151.95, A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Mountain segment (88% of net revenue) (88.0%); Concentration risk — Product: pass products (70.0%).
Vail Resorts owns and operates 42 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas in North America, Australia and Switzerland, plus lodging and real estate businesses; the Mountain segment was about 88% of fiscal 2026 net revenue. Revenue comes from lift tickets and pass... Read more
Sell if holding. At $151.95, A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Mountain segment (88% of net revenue) (88.0%); Concentration risk — Product: pass products (70.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Vail Resorts, Inc.
About Vail Resorts, Inc.
Vail Resorts operates 42 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas across the Rocky Mountains, Lake Tahoe, British Columbia, the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Australia and Switzerland, with the Mountain segment contributing about 88% of net revenue in the fiscal year ended July 31, 2026. The company's North American resorts logged roughly 13.1 million skier visits in the 2025/2026 season, about 17.9% of the 72.9 million industry total, and four of its resorts rank among the ten most visited in the United States.
Vail Resorts earns most of its money from lift tickets and pass products, which accounted for approximately 70% of total lift revenue in fiscal 2026, with ancillary income from ski school, dining, and retail/rental operations. The Lodging segment, about 12% of net revenue, covers RockResorts hotels, condominiums, the Grand Teton Lodge Company concession in Grand Teton National Park, and mountain golf courses; Real Estate adds a negligible share. Pass sales are collected largely before the season, which smooths cash timing, and the Epic Coverage program refunds pass holders for qualifying personal or closure events. The company competes with Aspen Snowmass, Deer Valley, Jackson Hole and other destination resorts, and its passes compete with the IKON Pass, the Indy Pass and the Mountain Collective Pass. Mountain operations carry a high fixed cost base, and management anticipates $229.0 million to $234.0 million of capital projects in calendar 2026.
Show full overview
Weather and seasonality form the sharpest exposure. Approximately 81% of combined Mountain and Lodging net revenue for fiscal 2026 was earned in the second and third fiscal quarters, so a weak winter cannot be recouped later in the year. The 10-K cites record low snowfall and historically warm temperatures across the western U.S. during 2025/2026, which reduced visitation and brought earlier closures at Rockies and Tahoe resorts. Because the company states that it charges some of the highest single-day lift ticket prices in the industry, a downturn in consumer spending may push it toward heavier discounting, which would weigh on margins given the fixed cost structure.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
From Vail Resorts, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Vail Resorts, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Unlocking Q4 Potential of Vail Resorts (MTN): Exploring Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Unlocking Q4 Potential of Vail Resorts (MTN): Exploring Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com neutral
- NEWS MTN Looks 23.8% Undervalued on GF Value™ - gurufocus.com — gurufocus.com positive
- NEWS Vail Resorts (MTN) Q3 2026 Preview. EPS Est. $9.05; Reports on June 8 - AlphaStreet — AlphaStreet neutral
- NEWS What Analyst Projections for Key Metrics Reveal About Vail Resorts (MTN) Q3 Earnings - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductMountain segment (88% of net revenue)88%10-K Item 1: 'Mountain, Lodging and Real Estate, which represented approximately 88%, 12% and 0%, respectively, of our net revenue'
- HIGHProductpass products70%10-K Item 1A: 'pass products (which for Fiscal 2026 accounted for approximately 70% of the total lift revenue)'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-09-02Item 5.02LOWDirector Sue Decker told the Board she will not stand for reelection at the 2026 annual meeting; she stays on the Compensation Committee until then. No disagreement with the company cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-07-30Item 5.02LOWBoard appointed William Hornbuckle, MGM Resorts CEO, as a director effective August 3, 2026, expanding the Board from nine to ten members.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $151.95, A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Mountain segment (88% of net revenue) (88.0%); Concentration risk — Product: pass products (70.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $143.79. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $129.07 reached (−15.1% from $151.95); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $143.79. Stop-loss: $143.79.
Concentration risk — Product: Mountain segment (88% of net revenue) (88.0%); Concentration risk — Product: pass products (70.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Vail Resorts, Inc. trades at a P/E of 36.9 (forward 22.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover MTN with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $148.
What does Vail Resorts, Inc. do?Vail Resorts owns and operates 42 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas in North America, Australia and...
Vail Resorts owns and operates 42 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas in North America, Australia and Switzerland, plus lodging and real estate businesses; the Mountain segment was about 88% of fiscal 2026 net revenue. Revenue comes from lift tickets and pass products (about 70% of lift revenue), plus ski school, dining and retail/rental. Its edge is a fully owned and operated resort network sold through one pass platform.