MSC Industrial Direct has a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and earnings estimates rising 31.6% in the past 30 days, but the stock has surpassed analyst price targets and trades with negative price momentum, offering limited near-term risk-reward for new buyers.
Thesis pillars
- Rising Earnings Estimates↑Improving
- Top Tier Financial Health→Stable
- Negative Momentum Price Overshoot↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Oct 22, 2026
MSC Industrial Direct Company, (MSM) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $122.59 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
MSC Industrial Direct distributes metalworking, maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) and fastener products across North America, offering about 2.5 million active SKUs sourced mostly from more than 3,000 third-party suppliers. It sells to machine shops, Fortune 1000... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $122.59 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity 68d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About MSC Industrial Direct Company,
About MSC Industrial Direct Company,
MSC Industrial Direct stocks approximately 2.5 million active SKUs and sources most of them from more than 3,000 suppliers, with no single supplier above 5% of total purchases in fiscal 2026. The company employed 7,028 associates at August 29, 2026, about 88% of them based in the United States, and none represented by a labor union. Its network includes five customer fulfillment centers, eight regional inventory centers, 37 warehouses and five manufacturing locations, with public sector customers representing roughly 9% of fiscal 2026 revenue.
MSC earns revenue as a distributor of metalworking and MRO products, including cutting tools, abrasives, machining fluids, fasteners, safety supplies and power transmission components. The customer base ranges from individual machine shops to Fortune 1000 manufacturers and government agencies. Orders arrive through the MSC website, vending machines, eProcurement, telephone and email, while more than 160 metalworking, safety and fluid connector technical specialists and a field sales force support larger accounts. Inventory management programs such as vending, vendor-managed inventory and in-plant solutions embed the company in customers' shop floors. MSC exclusive brands represented approximately 15% of net sales in fiscal 2026. Competitors include national, regional and local distributors, online sellers and manufacturers' direct sales organizations, and some of them offer greater product variety or financial resources. Demand tracks the operating levels of manufacturing customers, so industrial production cycles, plant shutdowns in summer and at year end, and weather all influence sales.
Show full overview
Pricing power and tariff policy offer a distinct angle. As national account and public sector sales grow, those customers receive lower pricing because of their larger purchase volumes, which may pressure gross margin, and vending and e-commerce expansion adds to that pressure. Suppliers and independent freight carriers typically pass along cost increases that MSC might not be able to recover from customers. The filing describes the 2025 tariff announcements, a 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating a number of those tariffs, and new tariffs introduced afterward under different statutory authority. Management reports diversifying its product portfolio to reduce exposure abroad and applying pricing and inventory countermeasures during 2026, though the outcome will depend on the scope and duration of tariffs. Goodwill and other indefinite-lived intangible assets totaled $734.9 million at fiscal year-end.
See also: Industrials · Industrial Distribution
From MSC Industrial Direct Company, 's most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 25, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — MSC Industrial Direct Company,
Latest news
- NEWS MSC Industrial (MSM) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Msc Industrial Direct stock hits all-time high at 133.71 USD - Investing.com Australia — Investing.com Australia positive
- NEWS Msc Industrial Direct stock hits all-time high at 133.71 USD - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS Msc Industrial Direct stock hits all-time high at 133.71 USD - Investing.com India — Investing.com India positive
- NEWS Msc Industrial Direct stock hits all-time high at 133.71 USD - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerU.S. government and public sector9.0%10-K Item 1A: 'As a supplier to the U.S. government and public sector, which represented approximately 9% of the Company's total revenue in fiscal year 2026'
- LOWProductMSC exclusive brands SKUs15%10-K Item 1: 'SKUs sold under MSC exclusive brands represented approximately 15% of net sales in fiscal year 2026'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-09-08Item 5.02MEDIUMRobert Kuhns, formerly CFO of TopBuild Corp., appointed EVP and Chief Financial Officer effective September 14, 2026. Interim CFO Greg Clark (since August 2025) resigned that role the same day and stays as VP of Finance and Corporate Controller. Clean handoff.SEC filing →
- 2026-08-19Item 5.02LOWDirector Louise Goeser notified the company on August 13, 2026 that she will not stand for re-election at the 2027 annual meeting; retirement planning, no disagreement with the company cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $122.59 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $114.01. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $117.12 reached (−4.5% from $122.59); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $114.01. Stop-loss: $114.01.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak growth.
MSC Industrial Direct Company, trades at a P/E of 30.8 (forward 18.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover MSM with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $135.
What does MSC Industrial Direct Company, do?MSC Industrial Direct distributes metalworking, maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) and fastener products across...
MSC Industrial Direct distributes metalworking, maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) and fastener products across North America, offering about 2.5 million active SKUs sourced mostly from more than 3,000 third-party suppliers. It sells to machine shops, Fortune 1000 manufacturers and public sector customers through e-commerce, field sales and inventory management programs such as vending and VMI. Technical metalworking expertise, same-day shipping and inventory solutions differentiate it in a fragmented market.