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MSMMSC Industrial Direct Company, Hold5.0·$115.59+0.07%
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MSC Industrial Direct Company, (MSM) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldHigh Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $115.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away).

MSC is a leading North American distributor of a broad range of metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations ("MRO") products and services. With a history of driving innovation in industrial product distribution for more than 80 years, we help solve our manufacturing... Read more

$115.59+0.5% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#13 of 17 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.89%
IncomeYield3.01%(5y avg 3.70%)Payout92.47%at-risk
Stop $109.41Target $116.15(resistance)A.R:R -2.3:1
Analyst target$96.17-16.8%6 analysts
$116.15our TP
$115.59price
$96.17mean
$67

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $115.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 22d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — MSC Industrial Direct Company,

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 1, 202622d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.6% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.1
P/E (Fwd)23.3
Mkt Cap$6.4B
EV/EBITDA16.6
Profit Mgn5.4%
ROE15.0%
Rev Growth2.9%
Beta0.83
Dividend3.01%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.44bullish
IV53%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-15Item 5.02MEDIUM
    MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC. | | | Date: | April 15, 2026 | By: | /s/ GREG CLARK | | Name: | Greg Clark | | Title: | Vice President and [... truncated]
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    . Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers On March 2, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.2
Earnings Growth
3.7

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.5
Value Rank
2.9
Quality Rank
4.2
GatesA.R:R -2.3=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 22d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
78 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $101.50Resistance $118.52

Price Targets

$109
$116
A.Upside+0.5%
A.R:R-2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-27.6% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-01 (22d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $115.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $116.15 (+0.5%), stop $109.41 (−5.6%), A.R:R -2.3:1. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the MSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $116.15 (+0.5% upside). Target $116.15 (+0.5%), stop $109.41 (−5.6%), A.R:R -2.3:1. Stop-loss: $109.41.

What are the risks of investing in MSM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Is MSM overvalued or undervalued?

MSC Industrial Direct Company, trades at a P/E of 31.1 (forward 23.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MSM?

11 analysts cover MSM with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $96.

What does MSC Industrial Direct Company, do?MSC is a leading North American distributor of a broad range of metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations...

MSC is a leading North American distributor of a broad range of metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations ("MRO") products and services. With a history of driving innovation in industrial product distribution for more than 80 years, we help solve our manufacturing customers' metalworking and MRO challenges.

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