Value
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.5 |
| PEG | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.3x
- ▸PEG: 2.36
MSM · Why this verdict
Why MSC Industrial Direct Company, (MSM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.0 |
| ROA | 5.5 |
| Gross margin | 4.2 |
| Op margin | 2.9 |
| Net margin | 2.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 6.5 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 3.7 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 79)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 2.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $45
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 9.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.3 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Estimates up 31.6% (30d)
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:22d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.20
Upside
-28.1%
Downside
12.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 22d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.5 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-2.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -2.20 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7, Catalyst at 5.6, and Quality at 5.4; the weakest are Growth at 3.5, Peer rank at 3.7, and Technical at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.20 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.