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MSAMSA Safety IncorporatedHold6.0·$179.16
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

MSA Safety has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats, a Piotroski score of 9 out of 9, and strong 15% operating margins, but a confirmed death cross price pattern with RSI at 32 and a flat 200-day moving average presents a significant near-term technical headwind that warrants patience before adding exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Quality→Stable
  • High Quality Industrial Business→Stable
  • Death Cross Rsi 32→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

HoldGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Security & Protection Services

Earnings in 3 days (2026-11-02). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $179.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

MSA Safety designs, manufactures, and sells safety products across detection, fire service, and industrial PPE categories through Americas and International segments, employing approximately 5,300 people as of December 31, 2025. Products are sold through more than 1,800... Read more

$179.16+1.1% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#5 of 11 Security & Protection Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.58%
IncomeYield1.21%(5y avg 1.22%)Payout26.49%sustainable
Entry $169.92(R/R-minimum solve)Stop $162.46Analyst target $181.11(−13% haircut)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst consensus$208.17+16.2%6 analysts
$181.11Analyst target
$179.16price
$208.17mean
$223

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $179.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $179.16 has reached target $181.11. No upside to wait for. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-30
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 2, 20263d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.0 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.7
P/E (Fwd)18.0
Mkt Cap$6.9B
EV/EBITDA14.2
Profit Mgn16.1%
ROE23.7%
Rev Growth6.2%
Beta0.91
Dividend1.21%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV36%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.2
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $175.29Resistance $185.23

Price Targets

$162
$170
$181
A.Upside+1.1%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.1% upside)
! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! momentum at 2.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-02 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $179.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $179.16 has reached target $181.11. No upside to wait for. Analyst target $181.11 (+1.1%), stop $162.46 (−10.3%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MSA stock price target?

Analyst target: $181.11 (+1.1% upside). Analyst target $181.11 (+1.1%), stop $162.46 (−10.3%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Stop-loss: $162.46.

What are the risks of investing in MSA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.

Is MSA overvalued or undervalued?

MSA Safety Incorporated trades at a P/E of 22.7 (forward 18.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MSA?

12 analysts cover MSA with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $208.

What does MSA Safety Incorporated do?MSA Safety designs, manufactures, and sells safety products across detection, fire service, and industrial PPE...

MSA Safety designs, manufactures, and sells safety products across detection, fire service, and industrial PPE categories through Americas and International segments, employing approximately 5,300 people as of December 31, 2025. Products are sold through more than 1,800 authorized distributor locations worldwide, with no individual customer exceeding 10% of annual sales.

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