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GEOGeo Group Inc (The) REITSell6.1·$26.38+4.23%
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Geo Group Inc (The) REIT (GEO) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Security & Protection Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.38 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.4% away).

The GEO Group is the largest private operator of correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the UK. It earns per-diem government contract revenues for housing federal, state, and local inmates and detainees, as... Read more

$26.38-1.5% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#3 of 8 Security & Protection Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-1.65%
Stop $24.94Target $26.27(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$29.50+11.8%4 analysts
$26.27our TP
$26.38price
$29.50mean
$33

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.38 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.4% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.4% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.8
P/E (Fwd)15.2
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn10.0%
ROE19.3%
Rev Growth16.6%
Beta0.83
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.20bullish
IV66%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.2
52w Position
7.1
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
78 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.87Resistance $26.81

Price Targets

$25
$26
A.Upside-0.4%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GEO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.38 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.4% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $24.94. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GEO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.27 (-1.5% upside). Prior stop was $24.94. Stop-loss: $24.94.

What are the risks of investing in GEO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.4% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).

Is GEO overvalued or undervalued?

Geo Group Inc (The) REIT trades at a P/E of 12.8 (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GEO?

8 analysts cover GEO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Geo Group Inc (The) REIT do?The GEO Group is the largest private operator of correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities in the...

The GEO Group is the largest private operator of correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the UK. It earns per-diem government contract revenues for housing federal, state, and local inmates and detainees, as well as rehabilitative programming services.

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