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ALLEAllegion plcSell5.5·$133.71+3.37%
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Allegion plc (ALLE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Security & Protection Services

Sell if holding. At $133.71, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Allegion plc makes security hardware and access control solutions — locks, exit devices, electronic access systems, and door controls — under brands including Schlage, CISA, SimonsVoss, and Von Duprin, serving institutional, commercial, and residential construction markets... Read more

$133.71+6.7% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#8 of 8 Security & Protection Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.45%
IncomeYield1.64%(5y avg 1.38%)Payout28.42%sustainable
Stop $127.37Target $142.68(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$164.00+22.7%12 analysts
$142.68our TP
$133.71price
$164.00mean
$189

Sell if holding. At $133.71, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Allegion plc

About Allegion plc

Allegion plc generated $4,067.3 million in net revenues and $859.5 million in operating income in 2025, with roughly 75% of sales originating in the United States and the remaining 25% from international markets. The company operates 37 principal production and assembly facilities — 22 in the Americas and 15 internationally — and employs 13,300 people globally. Among U.S.-based employees, approximately 16% work under collective bargaining agreements with various labor unions.

Allegion sells security and access control hardware through specialty distribution, wholesale, and retail channels including large home improvement centers; the top 10 customers accounted for approximately 26% of 2025 net revenues, with no single customer exceeding 10%. The portfolio spans five product families — door controls and exit devices, doors and glass systems, electronic security and access control, locks and key systems, and services and software — under more than 40 brands including Schlage, CISA, SimonsVoss, LCN, Von Duprin, and Stanley Access Technologies. Raw materials include steel, zinc, brass, and electronic components; the company sources approximately 20-25% of cost of goods sold from Mexico under the IMMEX manufacturing program and less than 5% from China. Principal competitors are Assa Abloy AB and dormakaba Group, with additional competition in the North American residential market from Fortune Brands Innovations.

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The company's Mexico-sourced input exposure creates sensitivity to U.S. trade policy. In 2025, Allegion offset tariff-driven inflation through pricing actions, but the filing cautions that the duration and magnitude of any new or increased tariffs — and retaliatory responses by other countries — may weigh on margins if pricing fails to fully absorb cost increases. The company does not use financial derivatives to hedge commodity price volatility, relying instead on annual price contracts and firm purchase commitments where available.

See also: Industrials · Security & Protection Services

From Allegion plc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202641d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Positive momentum
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.7%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.7
P/E (Fwd)13.6
Mkt Cap$11.1B
EV/EBITDA12.9
Profit Mgn15.2%
ROE34.2%
Rev Growth9.7%
Beta0.88
Dividend1.64%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.95neutral
IV57%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-10 customers26%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our 10 largest customers represented approximately 26% of our total Net revenues in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.6
52w Position
4.6
Gap
5.0

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.6
Revenue Growth
4.9
GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 41d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $125.00Resistance $134.30

Price Targets

$127
$143
A.Upside+6.7%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (41d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALLE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $133.71, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Prior stop was $127.37. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALLE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $142.68 (+6.7% upside). Prior stop was $127.37. Stop-loss: $127.37.

What are the risks of investing in ALLE?

Thin upside margin: 6.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is ALLE overvalued or undervalued?

Allegion plc trades at a P/E of 17.7 (forward 13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALLE?

20 analysts cover ALLE with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $164.

What does Allegion plc do?Allegion plc makes security hardware and access control solutions — locks, exit devices, electronic access systems, and...

Allegion plc makes security hardware and access control solutions — locks, exit devices, electronic access systems, and door controls — under brands including Schlage, CISA, SimonsVoss, and Von Duprin, serving institutional, commercial, and residential construction markets globally. In 2025, the company generated $4,067.3 million in net revenues across 37 production facilities and roughly 13,300 employees, with Assa Abloy AB and dormakaba Group as principal competitors.

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