Skip to main content
MRCYMercury Systems IncSell4.4·$118.87-0.38%
Open full analysis

Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $118.87: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.83; Below-average business quality.

Mercury Systems makes mission-critical processing systems for aerospace and defense, deployed in 300+ programs across 35 countries with $912M in fiscal 2025 revenue. Products span components to integrated subsystems for C4I, sensor processing, electronic warfare, and radar, sold... Read more

$118.87-0.7% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#45 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.36%
Stop $110.60Target $118.08(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$101.50-14.6%8 analysts
$118.08our TP
$118.87price
$101.50mean
$68

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $118.87: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.83; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 11, 202660d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government and defense programs (97.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers for FPGAs, ASICs, processors
Target reached (-25.7% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)77.9
Mkt Cap$7.2B
EV/EBITDA78.2
Profit Mgn-1.5%
ROE-1.0%
Rev Growth11.5%
Beta0.95
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.83bearish
IV73%elevated
Max Pain$65-45.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. government and defense programs97%
    10-K Item 1A: 'to the U.S. government, as well as foreign governments, accounted for approximately 97%, 95% and 98% of our total net revenues in fiscal years 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerRTX Corporation13%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In fiscal 2025, RTX Corporation accounted for 13% of our total net revenues and both Lockheed Martin and U. S. Navy accounted for 10% of our total net revenues.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerLockheed Martin10%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In fiscal 2025, RTX Corporation accounted for 13% of our total net revenues and both Lockheed Martin and U. S. Navy accounted for 10% of our total net revenues.'
  • HIGHSuppliersole-source suppliers for FPGAs, ASICs, processors
    10-K Item 1A: 'Several components used in our products are currently obtained from sole-source suppliers... dependent on a limited number of key vendors for certain critical components such as FPGAs'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
2.4
Value Rank
3.4

Unprofitable operations — net margin -1.5%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.4
Operating Margin
1.3
Gross Margin
1.7
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
8.9
Current Ratio
9.8
No competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.5
Bollinger
1.4
52w Position
9.7
GatesA.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 60d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
70 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $90.28Resistance $120.49

Price Targets

$111
$118
A.Upside-0.7%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-25.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-11 (60d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MRCY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $118.87: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.83; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $110.60. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MRCY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $118.08 (-0.7% upside). Prior stop was $110.60. Stop-loss: $110.60.

What are the risks of investing in MRCY?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government and defense programs (97.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers for FPGAs, ASICs, processors; Target reached (-25.7% upside).

Is MRCY overvalued or undervalued?

Mercury Systems Inc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 77.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MRCY?

15 analysts cover MRCY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $102.

What does Mercury Systems Inc do?Mercury Systems makes mission-critical processing systems for aerospace and defense, deployed in 300+ programs across...

Mercury Systems makes mission-critical processing systems for aerospace and defense, deployed in 300+ programs across 35 countries with $912M in fiscal 2025 revenue. Products span components to integrated subsystems for C4I, sensor processing, electronic warfare, and radar, sold primarily to defense prime contractors and the U.S. government.

Related stocks: VVX (V2X, Inc.) · HEI-A (Heico Corporation) · HEI (Heico Corporation) · VSEC (VSE Corporation) · EMBJ (Embraer S.A.)
Home Stocks MRCY

Latest news

Latest News

Benzinga18d agoProduct
Benzinga31d ago
Benzinga35d agoAnalyst
Benzinga39d agoAnalyst
Benzinga41d ago
Benzinga41d agoEarnings
Benzinga69d agoAnalyst