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MLYSMineralys Therapeutics, Inc.Sell5.2·$24.84+10.40%
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Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (MLYS) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.84: Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 5.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Mineralys Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with a single asset, lorundrostat, an aldosterone synthase inhibitor for hypertension and related cardiorenal conditions (CKD, OSA). An NDA was submitted in December 2025 with a PDUFA date of December 22, 2026;... Read more

$24.84+76.3% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#81 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-3.96%
Stop $22.49Target $42.63(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.1:1
Analyst target$49.00+97.3%8 analysts
$42.63our TP
$24.84price
$49.00mean
$56

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.84: Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 5.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 12, 202664d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Pipeline: lorundrostat
Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-10.7
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA-7.1
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-31.0%
Rev Growth
Beta0.56
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV95%elevated
Max Pain$65+161.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHpipelinelorundrostat
    10-K Item 1A: 'We currently only have one product candidate, lorundrostat...Our business presently depends entirely on our ability to successfully obtain regulatory approval'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
3.8
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume
5.6
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5INSIDER 0.23%=MODERATEA.R:R 5.1 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $22.30Resistance $32.14

Price Targets

$22
$43
A.Upside+71.6%
A.R:R5.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MLYS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.84: Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 5.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $22.49. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MLYS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $42.63 (+76.3% upside). Prior stop was $22.49. Stop-loss: $22.49.

What are the risks of investing in MLYS?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: lorundrostat; Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0).

Is MLYS overvalued or undervalued?

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MLYS?

16 analysts cover MLYS with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $49.

What does Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. do?Mineralys Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with a single asset, lorundrostat, an aldosterone...

Mineralys Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with a single asset, lorundrostat, an aldosterone synthase inhibitor for hypertension and related cardiorenal conditions (CKD, OSA). An NDA was submitted in December 2025 with a PDUFA date of December 22, 2026; no approved products and no product revenue to date.

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