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MGTXMeiraGTx Holdings plcBuy Wait6.7·$9.75
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

MeiraGTx screens as a high-quality, attractively valued biotech (72% ROE, wide moat, quality 9.1 out of 10) whose price has been weak, with negative news sentiment and an erratic earnings record. The shares trade 23.5% below a resistance-based target after the analyst target was rejected as implausible.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Profitability→Stable
  • Erratic Earnings Record↑Improving
  • Attractive Valuation→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 30, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

MeiraGTx Holdings plc (MGTX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Wait for pullback to $9.21. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $9.75. Engine's entry $9.21 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

MeiraGTx Holdings is a clinical-stage genetic medicines company developing in vivo gene therapies for salivary gland, neurodegenerative and ocular diseases, manufacturing through its own viral vector facilities in London, UK and Shannon, Ireland. The company earns milestone and... Read more

$9.75+147.6% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#11 of 241 Biotechnology
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.03%
Entry $9.21(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $8.78Target $24.14(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 13.7:1
Analyst consensus$27.75+184.6%8 analysts
$24.14our TP
$9.75price
$27.75mean
$50

Wait for pullback to $9.21. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $9.75. Engine's entry $9.21 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Value play: 55% MoS with quality 9.1. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About MeiraGTx Holdings plc

About MeiraGTx Holdings plc

MeiraGTx Holdings develops in vivo gene therapies manufactured at its own viral vector facilities in London, UK and Shannon, Ireland, with a pipeline spanning radiation-induced xerostomia (AAV-hAQP1), Parkinson's disease (AAV-GAD), and inherited retinal disease (AAV-AIPL1, licensed to Eli Lilly). The company reported a net loss of $114.2 million in 2025 against an accumulated deficit of $816.2 million, and held $68.2 million in cash at year-end before an anticipated $150.0 million in additional Hologen funding.

MeiraGTx earns milestone and upfront payments rather than product revenue, having received a $75.0 million upfront payment from Eli Lilly in November 2025 in exchange for exclusive worldwide rights to AAV-AIPL1 and two preclinical ophthalmology candidates, with up to $400.0 million in additional milestones available. In April 2026, the company paid $25.0 million to repurchase rights to its RPGR gene therapy from Janssen Pharmaceuticals, reversing a 2023 sale to Johnson & Johnson Innovative Medicine, while retaining a supply agreement to manufacture commercial RPGR product for J&J with up to $260.0 million in remaining milestones. A March 2025 strategic collaboration with Hologen - expected to close in the second quarter of 2026 - would contribute up to $230.0 million toward the company's neurology programs (AAV-GAD, AAV-BDNF) in exchange for a minority stake in a new joint venture, MeiraGTx Manufacturing, and rights to certain intellectual property.

Show full overview

MeiraGTx's $75.0 million in secured notes to Perceptive Credit Holdings III are collateralized by the company's London and Shannon manufacturing facilities, and the March 2026 amendment pushed the maturity date to May 2027 while requiring a $25.0 million principal redemption by June 30, 2026 - a payment the company expects to fund from cash on hand and the pending Hologen proceeds. Because the same facilities that secure this debt are also the source of MeiraGTx's manufacturing revenue under its J&J supply agreement, any default or acceleration under the Notes Purchase Agreement would directly threaten the collateral base underpinning both the company's commercial manufacturing capacity and its lender relationship.

See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology

From MeiraGTx Holdings plc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 202613d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=9.1 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
High-quality business
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.2
P/E (Fwd)-6.4
Mkt Cap$936M
EV/EBITDA4.6
Profit Mgn19.9%
ROE72.2%
Rev Growth8608.6%
Beta1.35
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.25bullish
IV178%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-16Item 1.01MEDIUM
    MeiraGTx repurchased rights to the RPGR gene-therapy product (X-linked retinitis pigmentosa) from Janssen Pharmaceuticals for a $25.0 million upfront payment plus up to $50.0 million in contingent consideration tied to U.S. regulatory approval and net sales milestones, reversing its 2023 sale of these rights to Johnson & Johnson Innovative Medicine.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)INSIDER 0.18%=MODERATEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)Momentum 5.0>=4.5A.R:R 13.7 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Speculative
RSI
42 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $9.05Resistance $11.36

Price Targets

$9
$9
$24
A.Upside+147.6%
A.R:R13.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.9%
Max %3.8%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier -1: STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MGTX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $9.21. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $9.75. Engine's entry $9.21 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Value play: 55% MoS with quality 9.1. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $24.14 (+147.6%), stop $8.78 (−11.0%), A.R:R 13.7:1. Score 6.7/10, high confidence.

What is the MGTX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.14 (+147.6% upside). Target $24.14 (+147.6%), stop $8.78 (−11.0%), A.R:R 13.7:1. Stop-loss: $8.78.

What are the risks of investing in MGTX?

Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MGTX overvalued or undervalued?

MeiraGTx Holdings plc trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward -6.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MGTX?

14 analysts cover MGTX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $28.

What does MeiraGTx Holdings plc do?MeiraGTx Holdings is a clinical-stage genetic medicines company developing in vivo gene therapies for salivary gland,...

MeiraGTx Holdings is a clinical-stage genetic medicines company developing in vivo gene therapies for salivary gland, neurodegenerative and ocular diseases, manufacturing through its own viral vector facilities in London, UK and Shannon, Ireland. The company earns milestone and upfront payments from partners including Johnson & Johnson Innovative Medicine (RPGR supply agreement), Eli Lilly ($75.0 million upfront in November 2025 for ophthalmology assets), and Hologen (collaboration expected to close in Q2 2026); it reported a net loss of $114.2 million in 2025.

Related stocks: CRMD (CorMedix Inc.) · HRMY (Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I) · ZVRA (Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.) · AUPH (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc) · PHAT (Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.)
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