Value
8.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
MGTX · Why this verdict
Why MeiraGTx Holdings (MGTX) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MeiraGTx screens as a high-quality, attractively valued biotech (72% ROE, wide moat, quality 9.1 out of 10) whose price has been weak, with negative news sentiment and an erratic earnings record. The shares trade 23.5% below a resistance-based target after the analyst target was rejected as implausible.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Profitability is exceptional on the data: a 72% return on equity, 20% margins, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, giving a quality score of 9.1 out of 10. Quality breakdown | Return on equity and margins should hold near current levels over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFor a clinical-stage biotech, one-time collaboration or licensing income can inflate returns, and free cash flow is only 71% of net income. | ||
Earnings are unpredictable: 2 beats and 2 misses over the last four quarters, with the August 2026 EPS of 2.52 against a -0.42 estimate followed by prior losses of -0.57 and -0.62. Earnings | EPS should stay at or above estimates at the November 12 report for the record to look reliable. | →Stable |
| CounterThe large August beat looks one-off, and the company missed nine of the prior twelve quarters. | ||
Valuation is attractive on the data, with price-to-earnings, price-to-sales and EV/EBITDA scores of 8.8 to 9.2 out of 10. Valuation breakdown | Valuation scores should stay high while earnings remain positive. | →Stable |
| CounterValuation ratios on lumpy biotech earnings are unreliable, and valuation confidence is only 0.6. | ||
Price momentum is weak, with a momentum score of 2.8 out of 10, falling on-balance volume showing distribution, and the price below its 200-day average although that average is still rising 4.3% over 30 days. Momentum breakdown | The price should reclaim its 200-day average and volume distribution should reverse for the pullback to end. | →Stable |
| CounterNegative news sentiment (-0.67) and implied volatility of 207% suggest further downside risk. | ||
Insiders are net sellers, with about $1.71M sold, 0.193% of market cap, although institutions are accumulating. Insider breakdown | Insider selling should fade as the price stabilizes; continued sales would be a warning. | →Stable |
| CounterThe selling is small relative to market cap and institutional accumulation shows large holders are buying. | ||
Profitability is exceptional on the data: a 72% return on equity, 20% margins, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, giving a quality score of 9.1 out of 10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity and margins should hold near current levels over the next 12 months.
CounterFor a clinical-stage biotech, one-time collaboration or licensing income can inflate returns, and free cash flow is only 71% of net income.
Earnings are unpredictable: 2 beats and 2 misses over the last four quarters, with the August 2026 EPS of 2.52 against a -0.42 estimate followed by prior losses of -0.57 and -0.62.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should stay at or above estimates at the November 12 report for the record to look reliable.
CounterThe large August beat looks one-off, and the company missed nine of the prior twelve quarters.
Valuation is attractive on the data, with price-to-earnings, price-to-sales and EV/EBITDA scores of 8.8 to 9.2 out of 10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Valuation scores should stay high while earnings remain positive.
CounterValuation ratios on lumpy biotech earnings are unreliable, and valuation confidence is only 0.6.
Price momentum is weak, with a momentum score of 2.8 out of 10, falling on-balance volume showing distribution, and the price below its 200-day average although that average is still rising 4.3% over 30 days.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price should reclaim its 200-day average and volume distribution should reverse for the pullback to end.
CounterNegative news sentiment (-0.67) and implied volatility of 207% suggest further downside risk.
Insiders are net sellers, with about $1.71M sold, 0.193% of market cap, although institutions are accumulating.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling should fade as the price stabilizes; continued sales would be a warning.
CounterThe selling is small relative to market cap and institutional accumulation shows large holders are buying.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.9 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.4 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 72%
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 71% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 180%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,710,812 (0.183% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 10.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.4 |
| support resistance | 5.7 |
| 52w position | 2.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 7.9 |
- ▸High IV: 177%
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Value play: 55% MoS with quality 9.1. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1|ENTRY_STICKY:CANDIDATE_HELDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:13.8>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- INSIDER:0.18%=MODERATE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
13.84
Upside
+144.0%
Downside
10.4%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Quality at 9.1 and asymmetric R:R of 13.84.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 9.1, Value at 8.9, and Peer rank at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 4.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8, and Catalyst at 4.9. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 13.84 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Profitability
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20% from the current 72%.
- P2Erratic Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Attractive Valuation
Trip ifForward valuation score falls below 5.0 from the current 9.0 as earnings turn negative.
- P4Weak Price Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the $8.81 stop level, more than 4% below the current $9.21.
- P5Insider Selling Overhang
Trip ifInsider selling over 90 days exceeds 1% of market cap from the current 0.193%.