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MGRCMcGrath RentCorpSell5.1·$115.09+0.22%
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McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services

Sell if holding. At $115.09, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

McGrath RentCorp rents and sells relocatable modular buildings (Mobile Modular), portable storage containers (Portable Storage), and electronic test equipment (TRS-RenTelco), plus manufactures classrooms for California schools (Enviroplex). Revenue comes from rental fees and... Read more

$115.09+9.9% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#9 of 16 Rental & Leasing Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.57%
IncomeYield1.70%(5y avg 1.87%)Payout30.79%sustainable
Stop $109.31Target $126.50(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$145.40+26.3%5 analysts
$126.50our TP
$115.09price
$145.40mean
$150

Sell if holding. At $115.09, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202640d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.9%
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.3
P/E (Fwd)16.4
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA12.9
Profit Mgn16.4%
ROE13.1%
Rev Growth1.6%
Beta0.44
Dividend1.70%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

IV100%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSuppliersingle modular manufacturer27%
    10-K Item 1: 'During 2025, Mobile Modular purchased 27% of its new modular units from one manufacturer'
  • MEDIUMCustomerpublic school (K-12)25%
    10-K Item 1: 'Rentals and Sales to Public Schools (K-12)...Consolidated Rental and Sales Revenues 1 | | 25% | | 24% | | 18%'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.1
Revenue Growth
2.9

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.2
Support Resistance
1.2
52w Position
8.2
GatesA.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $104.97Resistance $116.44

Price Targets

$109
$127
A.Upside+9.9%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MGRC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $115.09, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $109.31. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MGRC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $126.50 (+9.9% upside). Prior stop was $109.31. Stop-loss: $109.31.

What are the risks of investing in MGRC?

Thin upside margin: 9.9%; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.

Is MGRC overvalued or undervalued?

McGrath RentCorp trades at a P/E of 18.3 (forward 16.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MGRC?

9 analysts cover MGRC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $145.

What does McGrath RentCorp do?McGrath RentCorp rents and sells relocatable modular buildings (Mobile Modular), portable storage containers (Portable...

McGrath RentCorp rents and sells relocatable modular buildings (Mobile Modular), portable storage containers (Portable Storage), and electronic test equipment (TRS-RenTelco), plus manufactures classrooms for California schools (Enviroplex). Revenue comes from rental fees and equipment sales; K-12 public school rentals and sales represented 25% of consolidated revenues and 34% of modular revenues in 2025.

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