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MGM Resorts International (MGM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.16 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5.

MGM Resorts operates 16 domestic casino properties and two Macau casinos (via ~56% MGM China) across four segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital. Revenue is primarily gaming plus hotel and entertainment; most domestic real estate is... Read more

$38.16+0.7% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#12 of 12 Resorts & Casinos
Stop $35.46Target $38.40(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$42.67+11.8%18 analysts
$38.40our TP
$38.16price
$42.67mean
$30
$59

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.16 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)53.3
P/E (Fwd)16.9
Mkt Cap$10.0B
EV/EBITDA17.6
Profit Mgn1.0%
ROE13.5%
Rev Growth4.2%
Beta1.35
DividendNone
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.23bearish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$28-26.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicLas Vegas Strip
    10-K Item 1A: 'Because a significant number of our major gaming resorts are concentrated on the Las Vegas Strip, we are subject to greater risks than a gaming company that is more geographically diversified'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.8
Revenue Growth
3.6

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.7
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.6
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 0.36%=MODERATENo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.75Resistance $40.94

Price Targets

$35
$38
A.Upside+0.6%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.7% upside)
! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MGM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.16 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $35.46. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

What is the MGM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.40 (+0.7% upside). Prior stop was $35.46. Stop-loss: $35.46.

What are the risks of investing in MGM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MGM overvalued or undervalued?

MGM Resorts International trades at a P/E of 53.3 (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MGM?

31 analysts cover MGM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $43.

What does MGM Resorts International do?MGM Resorts operates 16 domestic casino properties and two Macau casinos (via ~56% MGM China) across four segments: Las...

MGM Resorts operates 16 domestic casino properties and two Macau casinos (via ~56% MGM China) across four segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital. Revenue is primarily gaming plus hotel and entertainment; most domestic real estate is leased under triple-net leases with 1.8B annual rent obligation.

Related stocks: LVS (Las Vegas Sands Corp.) · MCRI (Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.) · MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment L) · RRR (Red Rock Resorts, Inc.) · VAC (Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co)