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MGMMGM Resorts InternationalSell4.5·$48.90-0.14%
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MGM Resorts International (MGM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.90 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5.

MGM Resorts International is a global gaming and entertainment company operating 16 domestic casino resorts and two in Macau through its ~56% interest in MGM China, plus online gaming via LeoVegas and BetMGM. Revenue is earned from gaming, hotel, food and beverage,... Read more

$48.90+3.5% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#12 of 12 Resorts & Casinos
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.22%
Stop $45.45Target $50.56(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$46.56-4.8%18 analysts
$50.56our TP
$48.90price
$46.56mean
$33
$59

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.90 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)67.1
P/E (Fwd)21.1
Mkt Cap$12.5B
EV/EBITDA18.7
Profit Mgn1.0%
ROE13.5%
Rev Growth4.2%
Beta1.31
DividendNone
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.55bearish
IV58%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicLas Vegas Strip
    10-K Item 1A: 'a significant number of our major gaming resorts are concentrated on the Las Vegas Strip'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.8
Revenue Growth
3.6

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.3
Value Rank
3.3
Growth Rank
3.6
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
79 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.32Resistance $51.59

Price Targets

$45
$51
A.Upside+3.4%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MGM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.90 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $45.45. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

What is the MGM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.56 (+3.5% upside). Prior stop was $45.45. Stop-loss: $45.45.

What are the risks of investing in MGM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MGM overvalued or undervalued?

MGM Resorts International trades at a P/E of 67.1 (forward 21.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MGM?

31 analysts cover MGM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $47.

What does MGM Resorts International do?MGM Resorts International is a global gaming and entertainment company operating 16 domestic casino resorts and two in...

MGM Resorts International is a global gaming and entertainment company operating 16 domestic casino resorts and two in Macau through its ~56% interest in MGM China, plus online gaming via LeoVegas and BetMGM. Revenue is earned from gaming, hotel, food and beverage, entertainment, and digital gaming; substantially all domestic real estate is leased under triple-net agreements at ~$1.8 billion of annual rent.

Related stocks: LVS (Las Vegas Sands Corp.) · MCRI (Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.) · MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment L) · HGV (Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.) · WYNN (Wynn Resorts, Limited)
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