Skip to main content
MESOMesoblast LimitedSell4.1·$13.93-1.35%
Open full analysis

Mesoblast Limited (MESO) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.93: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 14.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum.

Mesoblast Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development of regenerative medicine products in Australia, the United States, Singapore, and Switzerland. The company's proprietary regenerative medicine technology platform is based on specialized cells known as... Read more

$13.93+113.6% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#147 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-3.80%
Stop $13.29Target $29.75(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 14.4:1
Analyst target$35.00+151.3%2 analysts
Range unavailable (2 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.93: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 14.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 27, 202676d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -39.5%), Material insider selling (18 sells, 0.19% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-201.7
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA-28.4
Profit Mgn-144.3%
ROE-18.2%
Rev Growth1526.8%
Beta0.79
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.11bearish
IV217%elevated
Max Pain$12-13.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Expensive valuation
Low model confidence on this dimension (20%).

Clinical-stage biotech: losses expected pre-commercialisation. Quality floor doesn't distinguish R&D investment from operational decay — components above tell the real story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.7
Moat
5.8
Cash-burning: FCF -106% of revenueQuality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
1.3
Ma Position
1.5
Macd
2.7
Rsi
3.5
Obv
9.3
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.7
Quality Rank
3.2
Growth Rank
10.0
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5INSIDER 2.06%=EXTREMEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 14.4 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $13.70Resistance $15.55

Price Targets

$13
$30
A.Upside+113.6%
A.R:R14.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -39.5%), Material insider selling (18 sells, 0.19% of cap)
! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MESO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.93: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 14.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $13.29. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MESO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.75 (+113.6% upside). Prior stop was $13.29. Stop-loss: $13.29.

What are the risks of investing in MESO?

Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -39.5%), Material insider selling (18 sells, 0.19% of cap).

Is MESO overvalued or undervalued?

Mesoblast Limited trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -201.7). TrendMatrix value score: 0.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MESO?

10 analysts cover MESO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Mesoblast Limited do?Mesoblast Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development of regenerative medicine products in...

Mesoblast Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development of regenerative medicine products in Australia, the United States, Singapore, and Switzerland. The company's proprietary regenerative medicine technology platform is based on specialized cells known as mesenchymal lineage cells. It offers Remestemcel-L, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of systemic inflammatory diseases, including steroid refractory acute graft versus host disease and biologic refractory inflammatory bowel disease, as well as ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease; and Remestemcel-L, which is in Phase III clinical trials to treat chronic heart failure and chronic low back pain due to degenerative disc disease. The company is also developing MPC-300-IV to treat biologic refractory rheumatoid arthritis diabetic nephropathy. It has strategic partnerships with Tasly Pharmaceutical Group to offer MPC-150-IM for the treatment or prevention of chronic heart failure; MPC-25-IC for the treatment or prevention of acute myocardial infarction; and Ryoncil for the treatment of pediatric SR-aGVHD; JCR Pharmaceuticals Co. Ltd. to treat wound healing in patients with epidermolysis bullosa and for the treatment of neonatal hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy; and Grünenthal to develops and commercializes cell therapy for the treatment of chronic low back pain. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

Related stocks: AUPH (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc) · INVA (Innoviva, Inc.) · ADMA (ADMA Biologics Inc) · HRMY (Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I) · GLPG (Galapagos NV)
Home Stocks MESO

Latest news

Latest News

Benzinga14d ago
Benzinga39d ago
Benzinga47d agoEarnings
Benzinga48d agoProduct
Benzinga62d agoMerger Acquisition
Benzinga66d agoFda Decision
Benzinga69d agoFda Decision
Benzinga69d ago