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MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $1561.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (4).

MercadoLibre operates Latin America's leading online commerce and fintech ecosystem across 18 countries, encompassing the Mercado Libre Marketplace, Mercado Pago payments platform, Mercado Envios logistics, and Mercado Ads. Revenue is generated from marketplace fees, fintech... Read more

$1561.91+36.4% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#13 of 18 Internet Retail
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-4.96%
Stop $1490.61Target $2123.89(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.0:1
Analyst target$2359.88+51.1%25 analysts
$2123.89our TP
$1561.91price
$2359.88mean
$3500

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $1561.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (4). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 27, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.57)
Analyst upside: 36%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0
Consecutive earnings misses (4)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)43.1
P/E (Fwd)25.1
Mkt Cap$82.8B
EV/EBITDA22.7
Profit Mgn6.0%
ROE31.3%
Rev Growth49.0%
Beta1.41
DividendNone
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.07bearish
IV51%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-03Item 5.02LOW
    Board established 2026 Bonus Program performance goals for NEOs (CEO, Executive Chairman, Fintech President, Tech & Ops President, CFO) based on net revenues, income from operations, total payment volume, and competitive NPS. Routine compensatory arrangement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Vol Acceleration
1.6
Rsi
3.0
Volume
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.5%/30d — confirmed downtrendVolume surge (3.4x avg) on selloff

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 86d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
27 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1536.71Resistance $1903.00

Price Targets

$1491
$2124
A.Upside+36.0%
A.R:R4.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (86d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MELI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $1561.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (4). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 27, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $1490.61. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MELI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $2123.89 (+36.4% upside). Prior stop was $1490.61. Stop-loss: $1490.61.

What are the risks of investing in MELI?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (4); Negative momentum.

Is MELI overvalued or undervalued?

MercadoLibre, Inc. trades at a P/E of 43.1 (forward 25.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MELI?

31 analysts cover MELI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $2360.

What does MercadoLibre, Inc. do?MercadoLibre operates Latin America's leading online commerce and fintech ecosystem across 18 countries, encompassing...

MercadoLibre operates Latin America's leading online commerce and fintech ecosystem across 18 countries, encompassing the Mercado Libre Marketplace, Mercado Pago payments platform, Mercado Envios logistics, and Mercado Ads. Revenue is generated from marketplace fees, fintech services (lending, payments, asset management), and logistics, with Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina as its largest markets.

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