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MDGLMadrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.Sell5.6·$491.61+2.25%
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Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $491.61 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Product: Rezdiffra.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on MASH, with Rezdiffra (resmetirom) as its sole approved product (FDA-approved March 2024, EC conditional approval August 2025). Rezdiffra generated $958.4 million in product revenue in 2025; a... Read more

$491.61+19.9% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#49 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-1.41%
Stop $457.89Target $590.48(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$678.71+38.1%14 analysts
$590.48our TP
$491.61price
$678.71mean
$964

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $491.61 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Product: Rezdiffra. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Rezdiffra
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)38.8
Mkt Cap$11.1B
EV/EBITDA-34.0
Profit Mgn-27.3%
ROE-49.3%
Rev Growth126.8%
Beta-1.06
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.12bearish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$720+46.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductRezdiffra
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our prospects are highly dependent on the success of our only approved product, Rezdiffra'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-28Item 5.02LOW
    Board reclassified Julian C. Baker (from Class III) and Daniel J. Brennan (from Class II) as Class I directors effective April 22, 2026. Directors resigned and were simultaneously reappointed; no actual departure from the board.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.3
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $445.20Resistance $535.76

Price Targets

$458
$590
A.Upside+20.1%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MDGL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $491.61 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Product: Rezdiffra. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $457.89. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MDGL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $590.48 (+19.9% upside). Prior stop was $457.89. Stop-loss: $457.89.

What are the risks of investing in MDGL?

Concentration risk — Product: Rezdiffra; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is MDGL overvalued or undervalued?

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 38.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MDGL?

23 analysts cover MDGL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $679.

What does Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on MASH, with Rezdiffra (resmetirom)...

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on MASH, with Rezdiffra (resmetirom) as its sole approved product (FDA-approved March 2024, EC conditional approval August 2025). Rezdiffra generated $958.4 million in product revenue in 2025; a pivotal Phase 3 OUTCOMES trial in compensated MASH cirrhosis is enrolling with data expected in 2027.

Related stocks: ARGX (argenx SE) · AUPH (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc) · INCY (Incyte Corporation) · ADMA (ADMA Biologics Inc) · HRMY (Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I)
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