Mercury General Corporation (MCY) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $100.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 85% exposure to California (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: California (85.0%).
Mercury General writes personal automobile insurance in 11 states through 12 subsidiaries, principally in California, and also offers homeowners, commercial auto, and other lines. With $5.98 billion in total direct premiums written in 2025, the company distributes primarily... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $100.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 85% exposure to California (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: California (85.0%). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-14Recent Developments — Mercury General Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Mercury General (NYSE:MCY) Downgraded to Hold Rating by Zacks Research - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Mercury General (MCY) to Release Earnings on Tuesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Mercury General (MCY) Analysis: 15.3% Return vs. Slowing Revenue Growth - News and Statistics - IndexBox — IndexBox neutral
- NEWS Ritholtz Wealth Management Acquires 21,768 Shares of Mercury General Corporation $MCY - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Will Slowing Revenue Forecasts Alter Mercury General's (MCY) Capital Efficiency Narrative? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia85%10-K Item 1A: 'the Company generated approximately 85% of its direct automobile insurance premiums written in California'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $100.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 85% exposure to California (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: California (85.0%). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $102.00 (+1.1%), stop $95.27 (−5.9%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $102.00 (+1.1% upside). Target $102.00 (+1.1%), stop $95.27 (−5.9%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Stop-loss: $95.27.
Single-region cliff: 85% exposure to California (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: California (85.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Mercury General Corporation trades at a P/E of 6.7 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.6/10. Verdict: Hold.
6 analysts cover MCY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $120.
What does Mercury General Corporation do?Mercury General writes personal automobile insurance in 11 states through 12 subsidiaries, principally in California,...
Mercury General writes personal automobile insurance in 11 states through 12 subsidiaries, principally in California, and also offers homeowners, commercial auto, and other lines. With $5.98 billion in total direct premiums written in 2025, the company distributes primarily through ~8,510 independent agents; California represents 82.1% of total direct premiums written.