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MCMoelis & CompanyBuy Wait6.1·$58.30
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Moelis & Company combines exceptional business quality — a Piotroski score of 9 out of 9, 42% return on equity, and superior margins relative to peers — with a recently broken earnings beat streak and virtually no remaining upside to the near-term technical target, suggesting the quality franchise is fairly priced and patience is the appropriate stance.

Thesis pillars

  • Fully Priced Near Term Target↓Deteriorating
  • Exceptional Business Quality→Stable
  • Beat Streak Recently Broken→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Moelis & Company (MC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)QualityHigh Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Earnings in 7 days (2026-11-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $52.35. At $58.30 the A.R:R is 0.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $52.35 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Moelis & Company is a global independent investment bank founded in 2007, providing M&A, recapitalization, restructuring, capital markets, and private capital advisory services to corporations, financial sponsors, governments, and sovereign wealth funds. The firm employed 1,416... Read more

$58.30+0.4% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#18 of 50 Capital Markets
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield4.46%(5y avg 4.35%)Payout90.59%at-risk
Entry $52.35(support + ATR (held))Stop $49.84Target $58.55(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst consensus$67.30+15.4%10 analysts
$58.55our TP
$58.30price
$67.30mean
$80

Wait for pullback to $52.35. At $58.30 the A.R:R is 0.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $52.35 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Fundamentals strong but target reached (0.4% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 6.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and news soft restructuring and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 20267d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.2 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.3
P/E (Fwd)15.1
Mkt Cap$4.3B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn14.5%
ROE41.5%
Rev Growth12.0%
Beta1.90
Dividend4.46%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.56bullish
IV61%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.0
Bollinger
0.2
Gap
5.0
52w Position
5.4
GatesA.R:R 0.0 < 1.5@spotNEWS SOFT RESTRUCTURINGEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $51.38Resistance $58.30

Price Targets

$50
$52
$59
A.Upside+0.4%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.4% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! NEWS_SOFT:RESTRUCTURING

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $52.35. At $58.30 the A.R:R is 0.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $52.35 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Fundamentals strong but target reached (0.4% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $58.55 (+0.4%), stop $49.84 (−17.0%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 6.1/10, high confidence.

What is the MC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $58.55 (+0.4% upside). Target $58.55 (+0.4%), stop $49.84 (−17.0%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $49.84.

What are the risks of investing in MC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is MC overvalued or undervalued?

Moelis & Company trades at a P/E of 20.3 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MC?

19 analysts cover MC with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $67.

What does Moelis & Company do?Moelis & Company is a global independent investment bank founded in 2007, providing M&A, recapitalization,...

Moelis & Company is a global independent investment bank founded in 2007, providing M&A, recapitalization, restructuring, capital markets, and private capital advisory services to corporations, financial sponsors, governments, and sovereign wealth funds. The firm employed 1,416 professionals including 178 Managing Directors across over 20 global offices in 2025; 254 clients paid fees of $1 million or more.

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