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MCMoelis & CompanyBuy Wait6.6·$68.35+4.75%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Moelis & Company combines exceptional business quality — a Piotroski score of 9 out of 9, 42% return on equity, and superior margins relative to peers — with a recently broken earnings beat streak and virtually no remaining upside to the near-term technical target, suggesting the quality franchise is fairly priced and patience is the appropriate stance.

Thesis pillars

  • Fully Priced Near Term TargetStable
  • Exceptional Business QualityStable
  • Beat Streak Recently BrokenStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Moelis & Company (MC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Wait for pullback to $64.39. BUY gates pass at $68.35, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $64.39 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Moelis & Company is a global independent investment bank founded in 2007, providing M&A, recapitalization, restructuring, capital markets, and private capital advisory services to corporations, financial sponsors, governments, and sovereign wealth funds. The firm employed 1,416... Read more

$68.35-9.0% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#14 of 49 Capital Markets
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.79%(5y avg 4.48%)Payout93.53%at-risk
Entry $64.39(support + ATR (held))Stop $58.77Target $71.20(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$71.50+4.6%10 analysts
$71.20our TP
$68.35price
$71.50mean
$60
$86

Wait for pullback to $64.39. BUY gates pass at $68.35, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $64.39 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.7
P/E (Fwd)16.7
Mkt Cap$4.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn14.5%
ROE41.8%
Rev Growth4.3%
Beta1.85
Dividend3.79%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV54%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $62.51Resistance $72.65

Price Targets

$59
$64
$71
A.Upside-9.0%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.0% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $64.39. BUY gates pass at $68.35, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $64.39 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $71.20 (+4.2%), stop $58.77 (−16.3%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $71.20 (-9.0% upside). Target $71.20 (+4.2%), stop $58.77 (−16.3%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $58.77.

What are the risks of investing in MC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is MC overvalued or undervalued?

Moelis & Company trades at a P/E of 24.7 (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MC?

19 analysts cover MC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $72.

What does Moelis & Company do?Moelis & Company is a global independent investment bank founded in 2007, providing M&A, recapitalization,...

Moelis & Company is a global independent investment bank founded in 2007, providing M&A, recapitalization, restructuring, capital markets, and private capital advisory services to corporations, financial sponsors, governments, and sovereign wealth funds. The firm employed 1,416 professionals including 178 Managing Directors across over 20 global offices in 2025; 254 clients paid fees of $1 million or more.

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