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MATMattel, Inc.Sell5.6·$14.57-0.61%
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Mattel, Inc. (MAT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Leisure

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $14.57: Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart, Target, and Amazon (top-3 customers) (42.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (49.0%).

Mattel designs and markets toys globally across North America and International segments, with a portfolio spanning Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and UNO. Revenue comes from selling toys to major retailers; in 2025 its three largest customers (Walmart, Target, Amazon)... Read more

$14.57+11.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#6 of 12 Leisure
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.32%
Stop $13.83Target $16.28(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$18.71+28.4%14 analysts
$16.28our TP
$14.57price
$18.71mean
$13
$28

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $14.57: Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart, Target, and Amazon (top-3 customers) (42.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (49.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13

Recent Developments — Mattel, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202639d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 37%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart, Target, and Amazon (top-3 customers) (42.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (49.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.4
P/E (Fwd)9.2
Mkt Cap$4.3B
EV/EBITDA8.5
Profit Mgn9.3%
ROE23.6%
Rev Growth4.3%
Beta0.73
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.54bullish
IV71%elevated
Max Pain$30+105.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerWalmart, Target, and Amazon (top-3 customers)42%
    10-K Item 1: 'Mattel's three largest customers, Walmart, Target, and Amazon, in the aggregate, accounted for approximately 42% of worldwide consolidated net sales'
  • HIGHCustomertop-10 customers49%
    10-K Item 1A: 'its ten largest customers, in the aggregate, accounted for approximately 49% of worldwide consolidated net sales'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-07Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Steve Totzke (President & Chief Commercial Officer) ceasing role effective May 1, 2026; Sanjay Luthra (EVP, EMEA & Global DTC) succeeding as Chief Commercial Officer. Totzke remains as non-executive advisor through December 31, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.6
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.6>=4.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $13.95Resistance $15.43

Price Targets

$14
$16
A.Upside+11.7%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MAT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $14.57: Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart, Target, and Amazon (top-3 customers) (42.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (49.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $13.83. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MAT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.28 (+11.1% upside). Prior stop was $13.83. Stop-loss: $13.83.

What are the risks of investing in MAT?

Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart, Target, and Amazon (top-3 customers) (42.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (49.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Is MAT overvalued or undervalued?

Mattel, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.4 (forward 9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MAT?

21 analysts cover MAT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Mattel, Inc. do?Mattel designs and markets toys globally across North America and International segments, with a portfolio spanning...

Mattel designs and markets toys globally across North America and International segments, with a portfolio spanning Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and UNO. Revenue comes from selling toys to major retailers; in 2025 its three largest customers (Walmart, Target, Amazon) represented 42% of worldwide net sales.

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