ManpowerGroup offers a statistically cheap headline multiple at 7x forward earnings and a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, but underlying quality is well below the minimum viable threshold — negative free cash flow, no detectable competitive moat, and a 16% short interest — making this look more like a value trap than an opportunity until the cash-flow picture repairs.
Thesis pillars
- Cheap Multiple Quality Trap Risk↑Improving
- Quality Deficit Below Minimum Bar→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 23, 2026
ManpowerGroup (MAN) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Staffing & Employment Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.49: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.47; Below-average business quality.
ManpowerGroup is a global workforce solutions company operating in more than 70 countries through approximately 2,100 offices under the Manpower, Experis, and Talent Solutions brands, providing staffing, IT professional resourcing, recruitment outsourcing, and career management... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.49: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.47; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About ManpowerGroup
About ManpowerGroup
ManpowerGroup operates roughly 2,100 offices across more than 70 countries under its Manpower, Experis, and Talent Solutions brands, serving clients through four reportable segments: Americas, Southern Europe, Northern Europe, and APME. The United States generated 63% of Americas segment revenue in 2025, while France and Italy contributed 53% and 22% of Southern Europe segment revenue, respectively, and large national and multinational clients accounted for approximately 60% of total 2025 revenues.
Across its segments, staffing and interim placement services generated 84% to 92% of regional revenue in 2025, with permanent recruitment, outcome-based consulting, and other services making up the remainder. ManpowerGroup competes against The Adecco Group and Randstad as the largest publicly traded rivals, alongside Recruit Holdings, Allegis Group, Kelly Services, Robert Half, Kforce, PageGroup, Korn Ferry, and Alexander Mann, in an industry the company describes as large and fragmented with low entry barriers at the local level. The business is structurally cyclical: staffing demand rises with economic growth while demand for Right Management's outplacement and career-transition services typically accelerates during downturns, partially offsetting the swing in staffing revenue. Working capital is sensitive to this cycle too, since ManpowerGroup pays associates weekly or monthly while carrying a 55-day accounts receivable collection cycle, so rising demand consumes cash even as it grows revenue.
Show full overview
ManpowerGroup's revenue is more exposed to large-account concentration than its fragmented, low-barrier industry structure might suggest: large national and multinational clients made up approximately 60% of 2025 revenues, and the 10-K notes these clients frequently enter non-exclusive arrangements with several staffing firms simultaneously, leaving the final vendor choice to local hiring managers rather than a locked-in contract. That dynamic means ManpowerGroup's scale and office density - rather than any single exclusive relationship - is what it depends on to win a share of each large client's spending, a structurally different risk than the sole-supplier or single-customer concentration seen in manufacturing-heavy industrials.
See also: Industrials · Staffing & Employment Services
From ManpowerGroup's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — ManpowerGroup
Latest news
- NEWS Talent Solutions TAPFIN Recognized as Global Leader by Everest Group — fiscal.ai Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS ManpowerGroup Elects Lidia Fonseca to Board of Directors — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Right Management Named One of America's Best Management Consulting Firms 2026 — fiscal.ai Oct 19, 2026 positive
- NEWS BMO Capital Maintains Outperform on ManpowerGroup, Lowers Price Target to $58 — benzinga Oct 19, 2026 positive
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on ManpowerGroup, Lowers Price Target to $48 — benzinga Oct 16, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-10-30T12:27:49Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerlarge national and multinational clients60%10-K Item 1: 'large national and multinational clients, which comprised approximately 60% of our revenues in 2025'
- HIGHGeographicUnited States (Americas segment)63%10-K Item 1: 'In the United States, where we realized 63% of the Americas' revenue'
- HIGHGeographicFrance (Southern Europe segment)53%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest operations in this segment are in France (53% of the segment revenue) and Italy (22% of the segment revenue).'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOWShareholders approved amendment and restatement of the 2011 Equity Incentive Plan at the May 8, 2026 annual meeting, increasing authorized shares by 1,100,000 and extending the plan through May 8, 2036; routine compensation matter.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-08Item 5.03LOWShareholders approved amending the Articles of Incorporation to permit removal of directors with or without cause; Board conformed the By-Laws accordingly, effective May 8, 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.49: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.47; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $42.31. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $45.53 (+0.1% upside). Prior stop was $42.31. Stop-loss: $42.31.
Concentration risk — Customer: large national and multinational clients (60.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (Americas segment) (63.0%); Target reached (0.1% upside).
ManpowerGroup trades at a P/E of 18.0 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover MAN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $52.
What does ManpowerGroup do?ManpowerGroup is a global workforce solutions company operating in more than 70 countries through approximately 2,100...
ManpowerGroup is a global workforce solutions company operating in more than 70 countries through approximately 2,100 offices under the Manpower, Experis, and Talent Solutions brands, providing staffing, IT professional resourcing, recruitment outsourcing, and career management services. Large national and multinational clients accounted for approximately 60% of 2025 revenues, and the United States generated 63% of Americas segment revenue. ManpowerGroup's Right Management career-transition business is historically counter-cyclical to its staffing operations, helping offset economic downturns.