Louisiana-Pacific is a building-products maker with declining revenue (-12%), a red-flag cash conversion and no competitive moat. The price is only 3.5% below the analyst target against 15.0% downside to the stop, so reward does not compensate for the risk.
Thesis pillars
- Declining Revenue→Stable
- Poor Cash Conversion→Stable
- Thin Upside To Target→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $73.31: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Louisiana-Pacific manufactures engineered wood building products across three segments: Siding (62% of 2025 net sales), OSB structural panels (31%), and South American operations, with more than 20 facilities across North and South America and 4,300 employees. Revenue totaled... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $73.31: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 2d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Louisiana-Pacific Corporation
About Louisiana-Pacific Corporation
Louisiana-Pacific generated $2.7 billion in net sales during 2025, with Siding products contributing 62% ($1.7 billion), OSB structural panels 31% ($832 million), and South American and other operations the remaining 7% ($187 million). The company operates more than 20 manufacturing facilities across the United States, Canada, Chile, and Brazil, employing approximately 4,300 workers, of whom roughly 1,200 are covered by collective bargaining or national trade union agreements.
LP sells through wholesale distributors, professional building-products dealers, and large retail home centers, with the top ten customers representing 47% of 2025 net sales. Siding products — the LP SmartSide and LP BuilderSeries lines — compete against vinyl and fiber cement alternatives based on product features, durability, and sustainability, while OSB commodity products compete primarily on price and availability. Wood fiber is the primary raw material; resin, sourced from five major suppliers, constitutes the second significant input with costs tied to petroleum prices. LP incurred $8 million in tariff costs during 2025 and notes that ongoing changes to U.S. trade policy could increase raw material costs further, though management does not expect tariff impacts to be material in 2026 absent further escalation.
Show full overview
The 10-K explicitly cites a high degree of product concentration in OSB, which accounted for 33% of North American net sales in 2025, down from 43% in both 2023 and 2024 as LP continues shifting production toward higher-margin Siding. Siding's relative resilience reflects the fact that over 50% of demand comes from repair-and-remodel and off-site structure markets rather than new residential construction; by contrast, OSB pricing is subject to significant commodity volatility tied to housing start cycles. U.S. housing starts totaled 1.364 million in 2025, nearly flat with 2024's 1.367 million, a level that constrains recovery runway for OSB pricing.
See also: Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
From Louisiana-Pacific Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-31Recent Developments — Louisiana-Pacific Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Oppenheimer Adjusts Price Target on Louisiana-Pacific to $104 From $107 — fiscal.ai Oct 26, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Oppenheimer Maintains Outperform on Louisiana-Pacific, Lowers Price Target to $104 — benzinga Oct 26, 2026 positive
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on Louisiana-Pacific, Lowers Price Target to $84 — benzinga Oct 16, 2026 positive
- NEWS B of A Securities Maintains Buy on Louisiana-Pacific, Lowers Price Target to $85 — benzinga Oct 14, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Goldman Sachs Maintains Sell on Louisiana-Pacific, Lowers Price Target to $64 — benzinga Oct 12, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-10-31T13:02:20Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers47%10-K Item 1: 'our top ten customers accounted for approximately 47% of our net sales'
- MEDIUMProductOSB33%10-K Item 1A: 'We have a high degree of product concentration in OSB ... OSB accounted for about 33% of our North American net sales in 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-01Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Alan J.M. Haughie notified LP board of intention to retire effective Sept 1, 2026. Successor Aaron Howald (currently VP Investor Relations and Business Development) appointed CFO and SVP effective Sept 1, 2026. Haughie to serve in advisory capacity through Feb 28, 2027.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $73.31: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Prior stop was $68.43. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $76.19 (+3.9% upside). Prior stop was $68.43. Stop-loss: $68.43.
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation trades at a P/E of 95.2 (forward 25.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover LPX with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $88.
What does Louisiana-Pacific Corporation do?Louisiana-Pacific manufactures engineered wood building products across three segments: Siding (62% of 2025 net sales),...
Louisiana-Pacific manufactures engineered wood building products across three segments: Siding (62% of 2025 net sales), OSB structural panels (31%), and South American operations, with more than 20 facilities across North and South America and 4,300 employees. Revenue totaled $2.7 billion in 2025, with the top ten customers representing approximately 47% of net sales.