AFLAC Incorporated (AFL) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Life
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $117.35 — A.R:R is negative (-2.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%).
Aflac provides supplemental health and life insurance across Japan and the United States through two reporting segments, with Aflac Japan contributing 53% of 2025 total adjusted revenues as the largest provider of cancer insurance in Japan by policies in force. Revenue comes... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $117.35 — A.R:R is negative (-2.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About AFLAC Incorporated
About AFLAC Incorporated
Aflac Japan contributed 53% of Aflac Incorporated's total adjusted revenues in 2025 and held 76% of total assets at year-end, making Japan the company's primary market across two reporting segments. The Japan operation distributes cancer and medical insurance through approximately 6,300 sales agencies with roughly 112,000 licensed associates, an alliance with Dai-ichi Life whose representatives sell cancer products, and agreements with approximately 90% of all Japanese banks. Aflac Japan is regulated by Japan's Financial Services Agency, which maintains a solvency margin ratio standard sensitive to interest rate and foreign exchange changes.
Aflac earns premium revenue from supplemental health and life policies that pay fixed cash benefits on eligible claims, regardless of what primary insurance covers. In Japan, the core portfolio centers on cancer insurance—a market the company entered in 1974—complemented by medical, nursing care, and life products; new products Miraito (cancer) and Anshin Palette (medical) launched in March and December 2025, respectively. In the United States, the company distributes accident, disability, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, and life coverage primarily through the worksite, with U.S. group business generating over one-third of annual sales in the fourth quarter during open enrollment. U.S. subsidiaries Aflac, CAIC, and TOIC are domiciled in Nebraska and regulated by the Nebraska Department of Insurance; the NDOI and New York State Department of Financial Services each completed full-scope financial examinations covering 2020–2023 in 2025, with no material findings.
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Aflac Japan's interest-rate sensitivity is a persistent structural exposure: the 10-K notes that Japan's low rates constrain reinvestment yields on the yen-denominated portfolio, while rising rates could trigger policy surrenders, generate unrealized losses on fixed-maturity holdings, and reduce the FSA solvency margin ratio in ways that restrict dividends to the parent. The Bank of Japan ended its negative-interest-rate policy in March 2024, meaning subsequent rate increases could simultaneously improve future reinvestment economics and erode fair values on existing portfolio positions—a dual-direction risk that the company's current hedging program does not fully neutralize.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Life
From AFLAC Incorporated's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — AFLAC Incorporated
Latest news
- NEWS Aflac (NYSE:AFL) Major Shareholder Sells $3,662,958.00 in Stock - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Post Holdings Co. Ltd. Japan Sells 30,400 Shares of Aflac (NYSE:AFL) Stock - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Lifts Aflac (AFL) PT to $125 on Solid Insurance Trends - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS A Fresh Look At Aflac (AFL) Valuation As Investor Interest Picks Up - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Post Holdings Co. Ltd. Japan Sells 50,000 Shares of Aflac (NYSE:AFL) Stock - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicJapan53%10-K Item 1A: 'Aflac Japan's adjusted revenues accounted for 53% of the Company's total adjusted revenues in 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $117.35 — A.R:R is negative (-2.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $112.38. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $116.81 (-0.5% upside). Prior stop was $112.38. Stop-loss: $112.38.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Japan (53.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.0% away).
AFLAC Incorporated trades at a P/E of 13.5 (forward 15.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover AFL with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $112.
What does AFLAC Incorporated do?Aflac provides supplemental health and life insurance across Japan and the United States through two reporting...
Aflac provides supplemental health and life insurance across Japan and the United States through two reporting segments, with Aflac Japan contributing 53% of 2025 total adjusted revenues as the largest provider of cancer insurance in Japan by policies in force. Revenue comes from fixed-benefit policies that pay cash regardless of primary insurance coverage, distributed through approximately 6,300 sales agencies in Japan and roughly 5,300 active U.S. agents.