Three consecutive earnings misses and a negative free cash flow profile place the fundamental quality well below the minimum threshold; while near-term price momentum has kept the stock elevated, the risk/reward geometry does not justify new capital at this time.
Thesis pillars
- Persistent Earnings Execution Gap→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality→Stable
- Momentum Without Trend Confirmation↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Knife Riv Holding Co. (KNF) Stock Analysis
Basic Materials · Building Materials
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $76.22: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.75; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Our 1.3 billion tons of aggregate reserves provide the foundation for our vertically integrated business strategy, with approximately 35 percent of our aggregates in 2025 being used internally to support value-added downstream products (ready-mix concrete and asphalt) and... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $76.22: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.75; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-29Recent Developments — Knife Riv Holding Co.
Latest news
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Underweight on Knife River, Raises Price Target to $81 — benzinga Jul 8, 2026 neutral
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on Knife River, Lowers Price Target to $107 — benzinga Jun 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS Oppenheimer Assumes Knife River at Outperform, Announces Price Target of $95 — benzinga May 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on Knife River, Raises Price Target to $95 — benzinga May 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS Knife River Holding Q1 2026 Earnings Call: Complete Transcript — benzinga May 5, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-30T22:23:47Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-21Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Peggy S.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $76.22: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.75; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $73.16. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $89.90 (+17.9% upside). Prior stop was $73.16. Stop-loss: $73.16.
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.9), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.04% of cap).
Knife Riv Holding Co. trades at a P/E of 30.6 (forward 20.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover KNF with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $103.
What does Knife Riv Holding Co. do?Our 1.3 billion tons of aggregate reserves provide the foundation for our vertically integrated business strategy, with...
Our 1.3 billion tons of aggregate reserves provide the foundation for our vertically integrated business strategy, with approximately 35 percent of our aggregates in 2025 being used internally to support value-added downstream products (ready-mix concrete and asphalt) and contracting services (asphalt paving, heavy-civil construction, concrete construction, site development and grading services, and in some segments the manufacturing of prestressed concrete produ