Three consecutive earnings misses and a negative free cash flow profile place the fundamental quality well below the minimum threshold; while near-term price momentum has kept the stock elevated, the risk/reward geometry does not justify new capital at this time.
Thesis pillars
- Persistent Earnings Execution Gap↑Improving
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality→Stable
- Momentum Without Trend Confirmation↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026
Knife Riv Holding Co. (KNF) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Basic Materials · Building Materials
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $54.25: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Our 1.3 billion tons of aggregate reserves provide the foundation for our vertically integrated business strategy, with approximately 35 percent of our aggregates in 2025 being used internally to support value-added downstream products (ready-mix concrete and asphalt) and... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $54.25: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Knife Riv Holding Co.
Latest news
- NEWS This Pentair Analyst Is No Longer Bearish; Here Are Top 2 Upgrades For Wednesday — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Wolfe Research Upgrades Knife River to Outperform — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Wolfe Research Upgrades Knife River to Buy — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS This Broadcom Analyst Turns Bullish; Here Are Top 4 Upgrades For Tuesday — benzinga Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Starboard Value Prepares to Nominate Directors at Knife River — fiscal.ai Oct 20, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $54.25: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Prior stop was $50.69. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $64.48 (+18.9% upside). Prior stop was $50.69. Stop-loss: $50.69.
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).
Knife Riv Holding Co. trades at a P/E of 22.1 (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover KNF with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $74.
What does Knife Riv Holding Co. do?Our 1.3 billion tons of aggregate reserves provide the foundation for our vertically integrated business strategy, with...
Our 1.3 billion tons of aggregate reserves provide the foundation for our vertically integrated business strategy, with approximately 35 percent of our aggregates in 2025 being used internally to support value-added downstream products (ready-mix concrete and asphalt) and contracting services (asphalt paving, heavy-civil construction, concrete construction, site development and grading services, and in some segments the manufacturing of prestressed concrete produ