Value
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.13
- ▸Attractively valued
KGC · Why this verdict
Why Kinross Gold (KGC) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.3/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Kinross Gold combines elite quality (9.5/10), 30% growth and a low forward P/E of 8.3x with 20.7% upside to the analyst target, but a confirmed downtrend and earnings in 4 days argue for patience on entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum scores only 3.3/10 with price below the 200-day average, falling OBV and a 43% drawdown, so the trend is still down. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should recover above 4.5 within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA death cross with a falling 30-day slope of -1.6% can persist for months, and recovery setups often fail. | ||
Quality scores 9.5/10 with 37% ROE, 38% margins, a wide moat and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, marking a high-quality gold producer. Quality breakdown | ROE should stay above 25% and margins above 30% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGold-miner margins are driven by the gold price, so peak-cycle profitability can look like durable quality and reverse if gold falls. | ||
Revenue and earnings are growing about 30% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $1.73B to $2.24B and 3 of 4 earnings beats. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should stay above $2.0B and earnings should keep beating estimates over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe April 2026 quarter was a 4% EPS miss and revenue fell sequentially from $2.41B to $2.24B, hinting growth may be peaking. | ||
Forward P/E is 8.3x with a PEG of 0.13, and the $26.97 analyst target implies 20.7% upside from $22.34 against 7.6% downside. Valuation breakdown | Price should move toward the $26.97 analyst target as earnings are delivered over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLow multiples on gold miners reflect commodity-price risk, and the analyst coverage is light, dampening the target's reliability. | ||
Earnings are due in 4 days with implied volatility of 62%, creating event risk right as the stock sits in a downtrend. Next earnings date | The coming report should deliver EPS above the estimate of roughly $0.7 and sustain the beat streak. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith a miss in one of the last four quarters and guidance unknown, a disappointing print could break near-term support. | ||
Momentum scores only 3.3/10 with price below the 200-day average, falling OBV and a 43% drawdown, so the trend is still down.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should recover above 4.5 within 12 months.
CounterA death cross with a falling 30-day slope of -1.6% can persist for months, and recovery setups often fail.
Quality scores 9.5/10 with 37% ROE, 38% margins, a wide moat and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, marking a high-quality gold producer.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE should stay above 25% and margins above 30% over the next 12 months.
CounterGold-miner margins are driven by the gold price, so peak-cycle profitability can look like durable quality and reverse if gold falls.
Revenue and earnings are growing about 30% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $1.73B to $2.24B and 3 of 4 earnings beats.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should stay above $2.0B and earnings should keep beating estimates over 12 months.
CounterThe April 2026 quarter was a 4% EPS miss and revenue fell sequentially from $2.41B to $2.24B, hinting growth may be peaking.
Forward P/E is 8.3x with a PEG of 0.13, and the $26.97 analyst target implies 20.7% upside from $22.34 against 7.6% downside.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $26.97 analyst target as earnings are delivered over the next 12 months.
CounterLow multiples on gold miners reflect commodity-price risk, and the analyst coverage is light, dampening the target's reliability.
Earnings are due in 4 days with implied volatility of 62%, creating event risk right as the stock sits in a downtrend.
↑ImprovingNext earnings date
- Expectation
- The coming report should deliver EPS above the estimate of roughly $0.7 and sustain the beat streak.
CounterWith a miss in one of the last four quarters and guidance unknown, a disappointing print could break near-term support.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.7 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 37%
- ▸Strong margins: 38%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
9.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 30% YoY
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 6.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 7.8 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 5.6 |
| 52w position | 1.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.8 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 4.9 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.49
- ▸High IV: 69%
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| surprise avg | 7.2 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 4.3 < 4.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (4.3) - hard block. Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE->V9:WEAK_MOMENTUM|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (8)
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:2/3
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.37
Upside
+17.4%
Downside
7.3%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=8.9
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -41% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.3<4.5 outcome against Growth at 9.9 and asymmetric R:R of 2.37.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.9, Quality at 9.5, and Value at 8.9; the weakest are Momentum at 4.3, Technical at 4.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.37 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Business Quality
Trip ifROE falls below 20% from the current 37%.
- P2Strong Growth And Beats
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $1.8B from the current $2.24B.
- P3Cheap Valuation With Target Upside
Trip ifShare price drops to $19.99 or below, the stop-loss level.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Weak Momentum
Trip ifShare price stays below the 200-day moving average for more than 6 months.
- P5Earnings Event Risk Near
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.