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KAIKadant IncBuy Wait6.0·$265.28
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Kadant is an industrial machinery maker with 23% growth, a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and a 9/9 Piotroski score, trading 15.8% below its analyst target, though it sits in a confirmed downtrend with 12% short interest and a full forward multiple.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth→Stable
  • Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
  • Analyst Target Upside→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Kadant Inc (KAI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Earnings in 3 days (2026-11-03). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $257.47. BUY gates pass at $265.28, but sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7 and below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $257.47 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Kadant supplies engineered systems across three segments—Flow Control (doctoring, cleaning, and fluid handling), Industrial Processing (wood and fiber), and Material Handling (conveying and baling)—serving paper, packaging, wood products, mining, and food processing industries... Read more

$265.28+14.5% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#12 of 56 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.38%
IncomeYield0.54%(5y avg 0.45%)Payout14.84%sustainable
Entry $257.47(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $245.47Target $303.88(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst consensus$357.50+34.8%2 analysts
$303.88our TP
$265.28price
$357.50mean
$380

Wait for pullback to $257.47. BUY gates pass at $265.28, but sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7 and below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $257.47 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Kadant Inc

About Kadant Inc

Kadant closed fiscal 2025 with a $288.2 million order backlog—up from $257.4 million at the prior fiscal year-end—split across Flow Control ($80.5 million), Industrial Processing ($162.5 million), and Material Handling ($45.2 million). The company completed two acquisitions in 2025: Babbini, an Italy-based industrial dewatering specialist, for $16.5 million net of cash, and Clyde Industries, a boiler efficiency technology manufacturer, for $173.7 million net of cash. About 50% of 2025 consolidated revenue came from customers outside the United States, principally in Europe, Asia, and Canada, with approximately 3,900 full-time employees worldwide.

Kadant generates revenue through capital equipment projects (about 29% of 2025 consolidated revenue) and recurring parts, consumables, and service sales (the balance). The Flow Control segment—rotary joints, doctor blades, syphon systems, expansion joints, and filtration equipment—serves paper machines and continuous-process equipment in packaging, energy, food, and industrial sectors. The Industrial Processing segment covers wood processing machinery for lumber and OSB mills (approximately 22% of consolidated 2025 revenue) as well as fiber recycling, pulping, and boiler cleaning systems; the two largest OSB customers together represented 12% of Industrial Processing segment revenues in 2025. The Material Handling segment's Link-Belt-branded conveying equipment, sold under a perpetual royalty-free license, contributed 17% of that segment's revenue in 2025.

Show full overview

The OSB end market exposes Kadant to residential construction cycles. The OSB market is highly concentrated, and mill closures or extended capital freezes by major OSB producers could reduce demand for wood processing equipment. Secular decline in newsprint and printing-grade paper production—approximately 4% of 2025 consolidated revenue and expected to continue—may also weigh on the Flow Control and Industrial Processing segments over time, while growth in recycled packaging, food processing, and industrial automation provides partial offset.

See also: Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

From Kadant Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 20263d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.5
P/E (Fwd)19.6
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA14.6
Profit Mgn9.5%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth22.6%
Beta1.20
Dividend0.54%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.60bullish
IV51%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographiccustomers outside the United States50%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 50% in 2025 and 2024 and 53% in 2023 of our consolidated revenue was to customers outside the United States, principally in Europe, Asia and Canada'
  • MEDIUMProductcapital equipment29%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 29% of our revenue in 2025 was from the sale of capital equipment to be used in process industries'
  • LOWProductWood Processing product line22%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 22% of our revenue in 2025 was from our Wood Processing product line'
  • LOWCustomertwo largest OSB customers12%
    10-K Item 1A: 'As a percentage of our Industrial Processing segment revenues, the two largest OSB customers together accounted for 12% in 2025, 13% in 2024, and 10% in 2023'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.5>=5.5A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $253.06Resistance $274.90

Price Targets

$245
$257
$304
A.Upside+14.5%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KAI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $257.47. BUY gates pass at $265.28, but sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7 and below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $257.47 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $303.88 (+14.6%), stop $245.47 (−8.1%), A.R:R 2.5:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KAI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $303.88 (+14.5% upside). Target $303.88 (+14.6%), stop $245.47 (−8.1%), A.R:R 2.5:1. Stop-loss: $245.47.

What are the risks of investing in KAI?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is KAI overvalued or undervalued?

Kadant Inc trades at a P/E of 28.5 (forward 19.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about KAI?

8 analysts cover KAI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $358.

What does Kadant Inc do?Kadant supplies engineered systems across three segments—Flow Control (doctoring, cleaning, and fluid handling),...

Kadant supplies engineered systems across three segments—Flow Control (doctoring, cleaning, and fluid handling), Industrial Processing (wood and fiber), and Material Handling (conveying and baling)—serving paper, packaging, wood products, mining, and food processing industries globally. About 50% of 2025 consolidated revenue came from outside the United States, with a year-end backlog of $288.2 million and roughly 3,900 employees worldwide.

Related stocks: AMSC (American Superconductor Corpora) · GTES (Gates Industrial Corporation Lt) · EPAC (Enerpac Tool Group Corp.) · HLIO (Helios Technologies, Inc.) · XE (X-Energy, Inc.)
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